Three high school students from Kwigillingok, Alaska share their stories about how climate change is impacting their lives and futures. They are our future, and they deserve better.
This is what Copenhagen should be about. Climate change is real and is happening now.Three high school students from Kwigillingok, Alaska share their stories about how... more
Extensive climate change is now affecting every form of life in the Arctic, according to a major new assessment by international polar scientists.
The report's main findings are:
Land
Permafrost is warming fast and at its margins thawing. Plants are growing more vigorously and densely. In northern Alaska, temperatures have been rising since the 1970s. In Russia, the tree line has advanced up hills and mountains at 10 metres a year. Nearly all glaciers are decreasing in mass, resulting in rising sea levels as the water drains to the ocean.
Summer sea ice
The most striking change in the Arctic in recent years has been the reduction in summer sea ice in 2007. This was 23% less than the previous record low of 5.6m sq kilometres in 2005, and 39% below the 1979-2000 average. New satellite data suggests the ice is much thinner than it used to be. For the first time in existing records, both the north-west and north-east passages were ice-free in summer 2008. However, the 2008 winter ice extent was near the year long-term average.
Greenland
The Greenland ice sheet has continued to melt in the past four years with summer temperatures consistently above the long-term average since the mid 1990s. In 2007, the area experiencing melt was 60% greater than in 1998. Melting lasted 20 days longer than usual at sea level and 53 days longer at 2-3,000m heights.
Warmer waters
In 2007, some ice-free areas were as much as 5C warmer than the long-term average. Arctic waters appear to have warmed as a result of the influx of warmer waters from the Pacific and Atlantic. The loss of reflective, white sea ice also means that more solar radiation is absorbed by the dark water, heating surface layers further.
Black carbon
Black carbon, or soot, is emitted from inefficient burning such as in diesel engines or from the burning of crops. It is warming the Arctic by creating a haze which absorbs sunlight, and it is also deposited on snow, darkening the surface and causing more sunlight to be absorbed.Extensive climate change is now affecting every form of life in the Arctic, according... more
How sea level rise and climate change will occur, based on the newest predictions from scientists around the world.
Warmer oceans around Antarctica mean less krill - and since the Southern Ocean is such an important feeding grounds for baleen whales - that spells trouble for whales and other ocean grazers, and in turn, the entire ecology of the world oceans.How sea level rise and climate change will occur, based on the newest predictions from... more
Rising seas are threatening to engulf the Maldives, so the president wants to buy a new homeland for his people. But should he instead be looking to build a new one on the grave of the old?
What would you want to do if you lived there? Who should pay for it?Rising seas are threatening to engulf the Maldives, so the president wants to buy a... more
About a hundred houses float on a lake in the Amsterdam neighbourhood of Ijburg --a testament to how the Dutch are trying to turn their traditional enemy, water, into an ally against overcrowding.
"There is a lot of water in the Netherlands, it is used for navigation and recreation. We want to see if it can also be inhabited," Ton van Namen, director of real estate company Monteflore, told AFP.
Monteflore built more than half the floating homes off the western shore of the Ijmeer lake, a dozen kilometres from the Amsterdam city centre.
The homes are cubic, with walls of plastic and untreated wood in neutral colours, built entirely with non-polluting materials. They take a few months to construct.
The first inhabitants of Ijburg's floating houses arrived in 2008.
"We are in the experimental phase, but this may be the beginning of the solution to residential overcrowding," said Igor Roovers, director of a grouping created by the Amsterdam city council to manage the Ijburg development -- the biggest of its kind in Europe.
The Netherlands, with 16.5 million inhabitants, is the second most densely populated country in Europe with 400 people per square kilometre (0.4 square mile).
Roovers believes floating homes may also provide the solution to another growing problem: the risk of residential flooding from rising sea levels caused by global warming.
Nine million people in the Netherlands live in inland areas directly sheltered from the sea and rivers by dykes and dunes, and 65 percent of the national production capacity lies in flood-prone areas.
The Ijburg houses rest on floating, concrete bases fixed to two solidly planted pillars to keep them stable, all the while allowing them to adjust to the water level.
They are linked to dry land by wharfs, through which they receive gas, electricity and running water.
"To live in this house gives me a sense of freedom. I have the feeling of being permanently on holiday," 43-year-old pilot Rik Uijlenhoet said of his 175 square-metre (218 square-yard) dwelling, its large windows looking out on a vast expanse of greyish lake water.
-- 'The water is my garden' --About a hundred houses float on a lake in the Amsterdam neighbourhood of Ijburg --a... more
South Asian paradise Maldives is one of the main countries most immediately threatened by the effects of climate change. With roughly 80 percent of its 1,200 islands 1m above sea level, Maldives’ President, Mohamed Nasheed has become a spokesperson for lowering atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 350 ppm.
Circle of blue speaks with 350.org founder Bill McKibben and catches Nasheed’s speech at the UN conference in Copenhagen about the movement that has spawned around the figure. Meanwhile the groups are fighting to keep the 350 figure in the negotiating text.
“The Maldives team is fighting to keep 350 in the negotiating texts.” Nasheed said, “Continue the protest, continue after Copenhagen, continue despite the odds, and eventually we will reach that crucial number – the most important number in the world.”
“3-5-0 ensures that our country survives, 3-5-0 makes a better world possible.”South Asian paradise Maldives is one of the main countries most immediately threatened... more
A possible rise in sea levels by 0.5 meters by 2050 could put at risk more than $28 trillion worth of assets in the world's largest coastal cities, according to a report compiled for the insurance industry.
The value of infrastructure exposed in so-called "port mega-cities," urban conurbations with more than 10 million people, is just $3 trillion at present.
The rise in potential losses would be a result of expected greater urbanization and increased exposure of this greater population to catastrophic surge events occurring once every 100 years caused by rising sea levels and higher temperatures.
The report, released on Monday by WWF and financial services Allianz, concludes that the world's diverse regions and ecosystems are close to temperature thresholds -- or "tipping points."
In the summer of 2007, a large portion of Arctic Sea ice - about 40 per cent - simply vanished. That wasn't supposed to happen. At least not yet. As recent as 2004, scientists had predicted it would take another 50 to 100 years for that much ice to melt. Yet here it was happening today.
It raised the question: Had global warming suddenly pressed the gas pedal to the floor? If so, the world was in for quite a climate ride - dramatic, jarring changes in climate much sooner than expected. Climate scientists were deeply worried.
"It really caught the scientific community by surprise," Professor James Ford, a McGill University geographer and Arctic expert recalled. "The Arctic system is close to crossing the threshold beyond which we will get dramatic changes in climate."
The sudden mass melting brought an earlier ice event into new perspective. In 2005, scientists at the Canadian Ice Service, the nation's leading ice specialists, were examining satellite images when they noticed that the Ayles Ice Shelf, which is about as big as the island of Montreal, had suddenly broken free from the top of Ellesmere Island and floated away.
Vincent Warwick, an Arctic expert at Université Laval, said at the time: "This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead."
The ice melt of 2007 seemed to confirm Warwick's fears. Reports since then claim the Arctic ice could be gone by 2013.
We have already crossed some critical climate thresholds. The world not only has to drastically cut back its greenhouse gas emissions but also begin to take steps to deal with the inevitable changes that global warming will cause. The much-feared tipping points - which would cause massive icecap and ice shield melting, and plunge the world headlong into severe weather systems, causing broad devastation and rising seas - seem increasingly probable.
This is why, scientists say, the United Nations climate talks that began this week in Bonn, Germany, and will culminate in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December, are so important. They are a last chance for the world to come to its senses and negotiate an agreement to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Scientists have been warning about these tipping points for decades, but few politicians have listened. Most industrialized countries led by the United States, Canada, Australia and Europe have continued to pump increased amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere despite promises to reduce emissions below 1990 levels.
Developing countries like China and India have taken no steps to curtail their emissions. With a new coal-fired power plant coming on stream every week, China is now the world's biggest GHG producer.
The atmosphere now contains 387 parts per million of carbon dioxide. This is more than the Earth has seen in the last 650,000 years. Pre-industrial levels were about 270 ppm, which remained pretty well constant over the 100,000 years mankind has walked the Earth. Scientists say that because of a delayed reaction, we have yet to experienced the full effect of what we already have put into the atmosphere. That effect will unravel in the decades to come. Meanwhile, we're adding about 30 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere annually or about 2 ppm. Last year alone, global GHGs increased three per cent.To the twelfth hour.
From the article:
In the summer of 2007, a large portion of... more
Seen from space these new images show us how the future of sea levels MAY rise when we realise that the IPCC has not factored in these variables into there projections to 2100.Seen from space these new images show us how the future of sea levels MAY rise when we... more
Water policy and energy policy must be integrated, according to a message from the International Water Association to delegates at the Copenhagen climate summit.
Adaptation to climate change from the water and energy sectors must come from more efficient use of resources, technological innovation and policies that create incentives for this to happen, according to a declaration from the International Water Association.
“The IWA calls upon decision makers and the international community to recognize the relationship between water and energy and to create a policy environment that supports joint efforts in addressing global climate change,” the declaration states.
Water is used to produce hydroelectric power and cool thermoelectric plants, while energy is used to extract, treat and transport water. Meanwhile urbanization, population growth and climate change will put pressure on water and energy infrastructure in the coming decades, according to the statement.
The declaration is directed at policymakers both in Copenhagen and in governments around the world. The IWA argues that “legislators must adopt the right regulatory and economic incentives to stimulate efficiency and innovation and drive change.”
Though the declaration doesn’t recommend specific policies or regulations, the IWA cautions that climate change negotiations that address only a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient. Negotiations must consider water and energy demands because low-carbon energy sources such as solar thermal plants will require substantial amounts of water.
The IWA statement is another call for climate negotiators to address water resources in Copenhagen. At a preparatory climate conference in Barcelona in November, all references to water were taken out of the draft negotiating text, causing an outcry from people in the water sector.
In response, the United Nations’ water division organized a ‘water day’ in Barcelona and issued a statement on the importance of connecting water and climate.
The Copenhagen summit begins on December 7.
Source: International Water Association
Circle of Blue will be on the ground in Copenhagen with multimedia coverage of the negotiations.Water policy and energy policy must be integrated, according to a message from the... more
While the world dithers about tackling climate change, in some parts of the world people are running out of time. In Florida sea level rises can be worked around to some extent - condos can be put on stilts and moved away from the shoreline. But on some islands you can only move back so far before you have to start worrying about the water at your back door as well as the water in front.
Here are five islands whose inhabitants are going to need a new home soon:
1. The Guardian reports today that the new president of the Maldives will be putting part of the country's profits from tourism into a very special - and unusual - fund: one that will be used to buy a new, climate-change-friendly home. With its highest point reaching only 2.4 metres, the Maldives is one of the lowest-lying nations in the world and risks being submerged by rising sea-levels.
2. Tuvalu is another small pacific island state, and after the Maldives the second-lowest nation in the world. At its highest, it is 5 metres above sea-level and could be gone by the middle of this century. In 2002, the government was said to have hired two international law firms to look into suing polluting nations for effectively evicting its citizens.
3. Kiribati is a group of 32 atols and one island that peaks at 6.5 metres above sea-level. The World Bank has been involved in assessing the nation's vulnerability to climate change. I attended a talk by one of the project leaders some years ago in Paris. She quoted a few of the changes which the islanders were noticing. The one that has always stuck with me was "the first line of coconut trees has disappeared". Salt-intrusion was killing off the trees that were closest to the water.
4. The inhabitants of the Carteret Islands of Papua New Guinea may be among the first climate refugees - their home lies just 1.2 metres above the waves. The government of Papua New Guinea adopted a plan in 2005 to evacuate the locals to the neighbouring island of Bougainville. The relocation was initially scheduled for 2007, then delayed. According to this report, there was a trial earlier this year, which created some tension as relocated citizens were used as labourers in coconut plantations on Bougainville.
5. In 1995, 500,000 inhabitants on Bangladesh's Bhola Island were forced to move in when half their island was permanently flooded. Some claim they were the first climate refugees. Scientists predict that 20 million Bangladeshis could suffer the same fate by 2030.
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How many more will it take for urgent action to begin? The longer we wait the more CO2 and other greenhouse gases continue to be spewed into the atmosphere. I recall sitting here last year asking the same question, and still no global treaty on climate change that addresses the true urgency of this, nor any significant bills by this Congress. And Obama still touts the 80% by 2050 line as if we actually have that kind of time. We don't.While the world dithers about tackling climate change, in some parts of the world... more
The Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica is the size of France.
It's weak under-belly - the grounding line where the Ice Shelf sits on submerged mountains is a current cause of concern to heightened observation for scientists and glaciologists.
We know the Wilkings Ice Shelf has broken away 15 years ahead of previous (best guess) predictions.
How soon will the Rose Ice Shelf go? We will find out.
If anyone hadn't noticed it's getting warmer down under.
If in areas to be innundated should you move?
It's suggested in Chaper 7 with all the facts.
Bob Williamson
Greenhouse Neutral Foundation
Author of ZERO Greenhouse Emissions - The Day the Lights Went Out Our Future World www.strategicbookpublishing.com/ZEROGreenhouseEmissions.htmlThe Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica is the size of France.
It's weak... more
The hole in the Earth's ozone layer has shielded Antarctica from the worst effects of global warming until now, according to the most comprehensive review to date of the state of the Antarctic climate. But scientists warned that as the hole closes up in the next few decades, temperatures on the continent could rise by around 3C on average, with melting ice contributing to a global sea-level increases of up to 1.4m.The hole in the Earth's ozone layer has shielded Antarctica from the worst... more
A NASA-led research team has used satellite data to make the most precise measurements to date of changes in the mass of mountain glaciers in the Gulf of Alaska, a region expected to be a significant contributor to global sea level rise over the next 50-100 years.
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Geophysicist Scott Luthcke of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and colleagues knew from well-documented research that changes in the cryosphere glaciers, ice caps, and other parts of the globe covered year-round by ice -- are a key source of most global sea level rise.
Melting ice will also bring changes to freshwater resources and wildlife habitat. Knowing that such ice-covered areas are difficult to observe consistently, the team worked to develop a satellite-based method that could accurately quantify glacial mass changes across seasons and years, and even discern whether individual glacier regions are growing or shrinking.
The study's authors found that the annual ice mass lost from glaciers in the Gulf of Alaska has been 84 gigatons annually, about five times the average annual flow of the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon and equal to the entire amount of water in the Chesapeake Bay.
"The Gulf of Alaska region is 20 times smaller than the ice-covered area of Greenland, yet it contributes nearly half as much freshwater melt as Greenland and accounts for about 15 percent of present-day global sea level rise stemming from melting ice," said Luthcke, lead author of the study which will appear this week in the Journal of Glaciology. "Considering that the Gulf of Alaska makes such a disproportionate contribution, it is vital that we know more about the nature of glacial change there."
Luthcke and colleagues found a way to remotely measure the "mass balance" of a glacier; that is, the net annual difference between ice accumulation and ice loss. Past measurements of glacial mass balance in remote mountain ranges have been sparse or imprecise. Ground-based sensors can provide long-term data, but such data points are scattered due to the inaccessibility of many remote mountain ranges. Altimeters aboard aircraft can measure changes in the height of glaciers, but the sampling is sporadic because flights are relatively infrequent.
Glaciers in the coastal environments on the edge of the Arctic or Antarctic shed and gain mass rapidly, a high mass turnover that is particularly sensitive to climate change. Warming seas can accelerate the motion of tidewater glaciers, and melt water on glacial surfaces can flow to the floors of glaciers and serve as a lubricant as the ice slides toward the sea. The subsequent addition of freshwater to the ocean contributes to one of two sources of global sea level rise; "eustatic" rise resulting from melted ice in the form of freshwater, with the other source set off by "thermal expansion," sea level rise that occurs due to warming ocean temperatures.
The Goddard-led research team developed a new data analysis technique for NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. GRACE is made up of twin satellites that orbit Earth about 137 miles apart and 300 miles above Earth's surface. The positions of the two satellites change in response to variations in Earth's gravity field, which is stronger or weaker depending on the land or ice mass that they are flying over. Microwave ranging systems measure the distance between the two satellites down to the width of a human hair, so by measuring the change in the distance between the satellites over time, researchers can essentially "weigh" the changes in Gulf of Alaska glaciers.
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More precise methods of determining total ice accumulation and loss in this and other areas are now essential in crafting proper legislation to deal with this crisis.A NASA-led research team has used satellite data to make the most precise measurements... more
This documentary explores the plight of those living in low lying areas of the South Pacific who are already feeling the effects of sea level rise and pollution. Water Tomorrow... It is today.This documentary explores the plight of those living in low lying areas of the South... more
Remember, it is the rapidity of the melting that indicates other forcings besides just natural processes. Forcings those responsible for want you to discount so they can keep their profits. And while they divert you with emails, distractionary "debates," and fake You Tube "lawsuits," glacier melt continues to threaten over 2 billion people globally. Now what do you really think is more important?Remember, it is the rapidity of the melting that indicates other forcings besides just... more
Scientists unveiled Sunday the first direct evidence that massive floods deep below Antarctica's ice cover are accelerating the flow of glaciers into the sea. How quickly these huge bodies of ice slide off the Antarctic and Greenland land masses into the ocean help determine the speed at which sea levels rise.
The stakes are enormous: an increase measured in tens of centimetres (inches) could wreak havoc for hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying deltas and island nations around the world.
Researchers discovered only recently that inaccessible subglacial lakes in Antarctica periodically shed huge quantities of water.
Data collected by a satellite launched in 2003 -- the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite, or ICESat -- revealed a complex network of subglacial plumbing in which water periodically cascades from one hidden reservoir to another.
But the new study, published online in the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first to measure the potential impact of this invisible flooding on sea-bound glaciers.
A trio of scientists led by Leigh Stearns of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine matched ICESat data against a nearly 50-year record of how fast the Byrd Glacier in East Antarctica has moved toward the sea.
They discovered that during the same 14-month period that 1.7 cubic kilometres (0.4 cubic miles) of water cascaded through subglacial waterways, the 75-kilometre (45-mile) long glacier downstream pick up speed, moving about 10 percent faster.
"Our findings provide direct evidence that an active lake drainage system can cause large and rapid changes in glacier dynamics," the researchers concluded.
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Two forces -- both driven by global warming -- cause sea levels to rise. One is thermal expansion of sea water.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned last year that thermal expansion will push sea levels up 18 to 59 centimetres (7.2 to 23.2 inches) by 2100, enough to wipe out several small island nations and severely disrupt low-lying mega deltas in Asia and Africa.
But the report failed to take into account the impact of the second force: additional water from melting sources of ice.
The ice sheet that sits atop Greenland, for example, contains enough water to raise world ocean levels by seven metres (23 feet).
Even the gloomiest global warming predictions do not include such a scenario.
But recent studies suggest that runoff from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could drive sea levels higher than once thought, one reason the IPCC decided to remove the upward bracket from its forecast.Scientists unveiled Sunday the first direct evidence that massive floods deep below... more
The first kind includes nations like the U.S. -- wealthy enough to help their citizens adapt to the temperature rise of 2 degrees Fahrenheit that scientists say is likely within 40 years, and almost inevitable.
The second kind of nation includes the world's poor countries, such as Bangladesh. They are likely, say scientists, to suffer far more than the rich nations, unable to help millions of climate refugees seeking food and water ... but they don't face the prospect of disappearing altogether.
The third kind, they say, may disappear entirely -- and quite possibly within the lifetime of today's teenagers. They are made up of islands, threatened by rising sea levels. They say it is not a future risk, but something that is happening now.
Take the vast island nation of Micronesia, with an ancient culture that includes 607 islands, scattered across a million square miles of the western Pacific.
These islands are already being eroded away by fast-rising sea level -- so fast that graveyards are disappearing.
Scientists are telling Micronesians there will probably be 3 more feet of sea-level rise in less than 90 years, with 6½ more feet as an estimated "upper bound" -- a distinct possibility.
"Even a small rise of 1 meter ... would already have a devastating effect," he said. "If it gets to a meter or higher, the islands would get uninhabitable."
A rising water table is already turning salty in the center of islands, killing staple food crops like taro, and many other kinds of plants.A third kind of nation is facing global warming.
The first kind includes nations... more
The government is preparing to relocate people living on islands considered vulnerable to rising sea levels over the next three decades.
Sea levels are expected to surge drastically between 2030 and 2040 because of global warming. Experts and the government fear that about 2,000 islands across the country will sink.
"We have formed a technical team who will identify the islands which could sink," Maritime and Fisheries Minister Freddy Numberi told the International Roundtable Meeting of World Ocean Conference here Thursday.
"The government has prepared a contingency plan, which includes relocation of residents off the islands."
Freddy said the islands were located in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua.
He asked the regional governments to keep an eye on the islands.
Indonesia, Freddy said, called on the international community to join forces in anticipating the disaster that would affect the whole world.
"Indonesia will only see small islands disappear, but there will be a country that is at risk of completely sinking due to the rising sea levels. Therefore, all countries must take this issue seriously."
Indonesia has lost about 60 islands in the western part of Sumatra following the tsunami in December 2004, not to mention several others due to mining activities.
Riau Governor Ismeth Abdullah said the sea level increases were the result of global warming and would affect uninhabited islands in the province in the long run. Local fisherman are already feeling the pinch from climate change, he added.
"Climate change has cut the fishermen's income because many fish are now gone," Ismeth said. His administration has promoted mangrove reforestation to deal with the increasing sea levels.
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In my view we have at mininum one year and maximum five years left to do anything constructive to urgently cut GHG emissions in rich countries and work with developing countries looking for economic prosperity to turn to more sustainable methods to achieve that goal before the tipping point comes. Indonesia is heading beyond the mitgation stage at this point and into the adaptation stage. Nations of the world are supposed to meet in Copenhagen in less than six months to try and forge a new climate treaty that addresses this most urgent crisis. Mitigation while still crucial will have to give way to global plans for adaptation and plans to provide for climate rerfugees should progress on mitigation remain slow with little real action from politicians.
I suspect we are not even close to an effective way to relocate massive numbers of people or have an effective way of providing for their safety and sustinence. Barack Obama in an interview with CNN yesterday stated his number one priority was the financial markets. Well, personally, the climate crisis should be the number one priority because the repercussions of it not being primary will be more to deal with than a crash on Wall Street. There is nothing more important than the sustainability of the planet and the life support systems that keep it turning. Without them we have nothing else. Perhaps when politicians realize this we will have progress, but I doubt that is going to happen anytime before the ice in the Arctic completely melts. I truly hope I am wrong.The government is preparing to relocate people living on islands considered vulnerable... more
