tagged w/ Arctic Sea Ice
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ANCHORAGE, Alaska – About half the recent record loss of Arctic sea ice can be blamed on global warming caused by human activity, according to a new study by scientists from the nation’s leading climate research center.
The peer-reviewed study, funded by the National Science Foundation, is the first to attribute a specific proportion of the ice melt to greenhouse gases and particulates from pollution.
The study used supercomputers and one of the world’s most sophisticated climate models to reach its conclusions, said lead author Jennifer Kay, a staff scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The paper was published last week in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Kay said her study was an attempt to learn how much Arctic Ocean melting can be attributed to “natural variability” – complex changes wrought by nonhuman forces – and how much has been caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and by atmospheric particulates.
In doing so, she was also able to look ahead to future annual and decade-long fluctuations. She and the other authors said conditions will become more volatile from year to year. That means there will be years and perhaps decades when the ice pack expands. But the trend is in the other direction.
“There’s no doubt about it: sea ice is going away,” she said. “What we found was that about half of that trend is related to the increasing greenhouse gases.” The other half of the sea-ice loss, as observed over the late 20th century, was “just related to variability in the system.”
The study comes at an important time as public policy and climate change intersect in Alaska and elsewhere in the North. The reduction of the ice pack is already opening Arctic waters to transportation, development and military activities. The NCAR study says that the melting of the ice pack is no short-term fluke but an actual change in climate.
In the study, the authors said earlier research determined that greenhouse gases were responsible for some loss of sea ice, but no one had been able to firmly establish how big a part they played.
Kay said the climate model she chose, Community Climate System Model version 4, had been developed by teams of scientists over several decades. She ran 4,000 years’ worth of data through the model, a period when volcanoes, solar variations and other factors were known or believed to have caused climate changes.
The scientists placed extra focus on the years since 1979, when satellite images became available to determine the extent of sea-ice depletion.
The model accurately “predicted” what actually occurred historically, validating the method, she said.
But more to the point, by replaying the climate forces of the 20th century over and over through the model, the scientists were able to show that variability can account for only half the loss of ice, she said.
That means that if humans were still only hunters and gatherers, sea ice might have retreated anyway over the past 30 years.
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/aug/15/study-of-ice-melt-fixes-humans-role/ANCHORAGE, Alaska – About half the recent record loss of Arctic sea ice can be... more
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Arctic species under threat, report warns
By Matthew Knight for CNN
September 14, 2010 2:41 p.m. EDT
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* New report highlights extinction threat to Arctic wildlife
* Whales, walruses, Arctic foxes, even plankton are all at risk of dying out
* Rapid melting of Arctic ice sheet in recent years means habitats are disrupted or destroyed
* Lead author says reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a must to prevent further losses
London, England (CNN) -- Polar bears clinging to melting ice sheets have become one of the most frequently used images to portray the perils of climate change.
But a new report by the U.S. Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) and UK-based Care for the Wild International (CWI) is bringing attention to the predicament of other equally endangered Arctic species.
Seventeen Arctic animals are highlighted in "Extinction: It's Not Just for Polar Bears."
Shaye Wolf, lead author and climate science director of the CBD told CNN: "The plight of the polar bear due to global warming is very well known and familiar. But many other Arctic species are suffering a similar fate -- from plankton all the way to the great whales."
The impacts of climate change are "unfolding far more rapidly in the Arctic than any other area on the planet" threatening its ecosystem, the report said.
A 2009 study by Donald K. Perovich and Jacqueline A Richter-Menge -- "Loss of Sea Ice in the Arctic" -- reported that the sea ice extent in 2007 was one million square miles below the average figure recorded between 1979 and 2000.
This, and other data suggests, say scientists, that summer sea ice could completely disappear in the Arctic by 2030.
The ice retreat is already spelling trouble for marine mammals like the Pacific walrus and the harp seal.
Pacific walruses, like many of the mammals in the report, are sea ice dependent says Wolf, with many having already suffering population declines.
"As we speak, there are 10 to 20,000 walruses holed up on Alaskan Arctic coastline. And that is attributable to sea ice loss," Wolf says.
"Walruses need sea ice for resting because they can't swim continuously. When they lose that sea ice, especially moms and calves, they are forced to come to shore -- where calves are very vulnerable to be trampled in stampedes."
Last year, Wolf says the stampede claimed 131 young walruses.
The number was even higher off the Russian coast in 2007 where several thousand calves died when around 40,000 walruses were pushed ashore.
Ocean acidification -- caused by increased uptake of carbon dioxide -- is happening more quickly in the Arctic than in warmer waters, says Wolf.
Shell-building marine creatures like the sea butterfly (Clione limacina) are particularly vulnerable to acidification.
Their loss would be potentially devastating for other species.
On land, the Arctic fox -- found on the southern edges of the Arctic tundra -- is facing "myriad threats from climate change," including shrinking sea ice and tundra, declines in lemming prey and increased competition from the larger, more dominant red fox -- which is edging north as temperatures rise.
All the animals in the report are at risk of extinction due to climate change says Wolf.
"What is going on in the Arctic isn't something that we can consider completely remote from ourselves. Actually, it's a fantastic barometer of what is going to happen in the rest of the world," CWI's Rebecca Taylor told CNN.
"The Arctic is ground zero for climate change and we're already pushing many species towards extinction. The key to preventing their loss is reducing our greenhouse gas emissions -- specifically carbon dioxide -- to a level of 350ppm or below. That is a level many leading scientists have called for to restore Arctic sea ice," Wolf said.Arctic species under threat, report warns
By Matthew Knight for CNN
September 14,... more
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You just lived through hottest June in recorded history
Report: Warmest June on record globally
By Angela Fritz, CNN Meteorologist
July 18, 2010 5:10 p.m. EDT
Photo: New Yorkers in the Bronx seek refuge from the heat June 10.
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* Report says warmer-than-average conditions were present globally in June
* Australia continues to suffer from below-average rainfall
* Arctic sea ice reached a record low for the month of June
(CNN) -- Last month was the warmest June on record worldwide, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Warmer-than-average conditions were present across nearly all continents, including much of the United States, according to the organization's State of the Climate report, released Friday.
Although global sea surface temperatures ranked the fourth-warmest on record, the combination of land and sea anomalies pushed June 2010 past June 2005, previously the warmest June on record, the report said. June was also the fourth consecutive month in a row of record warmth worldwide.
Meanwhile, wetter-than-average conditions were present in southern India, southern China, southern Europe and the U.S. Midwest, the report said. In contrast, southwest Australia is experiencing record-setting rainfall deficiencies, with the lowest rainfall on record for the first half of the year, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau reported that all states and territories in Australia experienced drier-than-average conditions in June.
June also marked a record low in Arctic sea ice -- the 19th June in a row the sea ice has been below average.
"This is important, because sea ice reflects incoming solar radiation back to space," said CNN Meteorologist Taylor Ward. "Without the normal extent of sea ice in the Arctic, we can expect more radiation to be absorbed into the ocean, leading to more melting. It's what we call a 'positive feedback.'" The amount of sea ice in the Arctic has been steadily declining since 1990.
Warmer-than-average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, also known as El Nino, have been contributing to the warmth. La Nina conditions -- cooler-than-average temperatures in the same region -- are beginning to set in, which could prevent more monthly records from being set. However, La Nina combined with record-setting warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures is expected to fuel an active Atlantic hurricane season.
The announcement of June's record-setting warmth comes during a period of extreme heat in the United States and Europe. Excessive heat warnings have been topping weather headlines in the United States for more than two weeks now, and Europe has been shattering temperature records as well, with a heat wave through the first half of July. Eastern Europe has seen the most significant temperatures, although much of the continent has experienced above-average heat.You just lived through hottest June in recorded history
Report: Warmest June on... more
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Study - based on satellite measurements - among first to estimate the thickness of the Arctic ice, rather than surface area.
The Earth is going thin on top. A new study has revealed that the Arctic Ocean's permanent blanket of ice around the North Pole has thinned by more than 40% since 2004.
Scientists said the rapid loss was "remarkable" and could force experts to reassess how quickly the Arctic ice in the summer may disappear completely. They blame the loss on global warming, which has driven temperatures in the Arctic to record highs and summer ice extent to recent lows.
The study, based on satellite measurements, is among the first to estimate the thickness of the Arctic ice, rather than just its surface area.
Ron Kwok, senior research scientist at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, said: "Even in years when the overall extent of sea ice remains stable or grows slightly, the thickness and volume of the ice cover is continuing to decline, making the ice more vulnerable to continued shrinkage."
The study looked at measurements taken of the Arctic region by the Icesat satellite, launched in 2003.
Overall, the experts found that the ice, typically up to about 3m thick, thinned by 67cm over the last four winters.
Converting to ice volume, the scientists worked out the amount of so-called multiyear ice, which persists through Arctic summers, had decreased in the winter by up to 6,300 cubic kilometres since 2005 – a decline of more than 40%. The research is published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.
The Arctic ice cap fluctuates with the seasons, growing in the freezing winter and shrinking over the summer. An important finding of the study is that the majority of Arctic ice no longer survives the summer. In 2003, this multiyear ice made up 62% of the region's total ice volume. By 2008, this was down to 32%. The remaining 68% was "first-year" seasonal ice, which was open water during the summer, so is thinner and more likely to melt away.Study - based on satellite measurements - among first to estimate the thickness of the... more
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British explorer team finds in 16,000 observations no multi-year ice in Arctic Sea test sites.
Dr. Vicky Pope: "When climate scientists like me explain to people what we do for a living we are increasingly asked whether we "believe in climate change". Quite simply it is not a matter of belief. Our concerns about climate change arise from the scientific evidence that humanity's activities are leading to changes in our climate. The scientific evidence is overwhelming."British explorer team finds in 16,000 observations no multi-year ice in Arctic Sea... more
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Please follow linked page for a view of the letter from then, Senator Obama.
The Sea Shepherd Conservation Society is very hopeful that President Barack Obama will act strongly as President to oppose and condemn the annual slaughter of baby seals by Canadian sealers. We have every reason to believe that he will do so, considering this letter that President Obama sent to a constituent in 2006 when he was a Senator and a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
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The Canadian government has promised (AGAIN) the slaughter or "harvest" will be more "humane" this year. How? After a hunter shoots or clubs a seal, he now must "check its eyes to ensure it is dead, and if not, the animal's main arteries must be cut".
Am I missing something here? That does not qualify as "humane". To term the mass slaughter of any creature as a "harvest" seems wrong. However, for the commercial sealers and fisherman, it is an effective way to easily manipulate the masses. Using descriptive terminology that creates detachment. Eerily similar to calling a cow "beef" or a pig "pork".
The Canadian commercial seal hunt is the largest mass slaughter of marine mammals on Earth. Canada is even going to break it's own world record this year. The 'quota' for 2009 for the Canadian Seal Slaughter is more than 338,000. This 'quota' does not include all of the seals that will die. The 338,000, does not include the baby seals that are fatally wounded and manage to get away. Or, the seals that DROWN because they have not learned to swim yet. This record breaking quota, also, does not include the seals that die trying to protect their baby...
But what can the seals do? They can't run. They can't hide. They can't fight. The baby seals do even know that they need to be afraid of humans until it's too late... bearing witness to their fellow playmates being butchered only to find they are next. So, they sit on the bloody ice and wait.
Just what are they doing with all those dead baby seals? The furs are made into coats, bags and other clothes. Some furs end up as novelties or 'trinkets' like key-chain charms. And there's a growing market for seal oil, high in omega-3 fatty acid… and PCBs . . .
Canada's annual seal slaughter, is a barbaric display of just how spiritually void and ethically bankrupt the human species has become.Please follow linked page for a view of the letter from then, Senator Obama.
The... more
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Mercury Levels in Seals Rising - Reverse the Trend
Target: Interior Secretary Ken Salazar
Sponsored by: Care2
Global warming is changing the ecology of the Arctic Ocean - and the effects on the inhabitants of the Arctic are just starting to come to light. A just-released research report links vanishing sea ice to a shocking rise in mercury levels in ringed seals.
Cod are a very mercury-contaminated species - and a favorite of ringed seals during the ice-free season. Because the ice-free season is becoming longer and longer due to global warming, researchers say, the feeding season for ringed seals is also becoming longer - and as a consequence, the seals are taking in too much mercury.
The mercury contamination will only get worse for the Arctic ringed seal unless we start to seriously address global warming! More research is needed to see just how the transfer of mercury in the food web is being affected by global warming. Urge Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar to ensure his department puts resources behind investigating the impact of global warming on seals and other marine life.Mercury Levels in Seals Rising - Reverse the Trend
Target: Interior Secretary Ken... more
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Photo: "Losing their home"
Today, Washington Post reporters Juliet Eilperin and Mary Beth Sheridan have a piece on the alarming decline of Arctic sea ice. In and of itself the story isn’t that surprising: scientists have known for a while that the ice is declining; new data just confirms that it’s happening faster than originally estimated. That’s consistent with all sorts of new observational data on the effects of climate change, which across the board seem to be exceeding scientists’ most pessimistic predictions.
What jumped out at me is this bit, toward the bottom of the piece:
The new evidence—including satellite data showing that the average multiyear wintertime sea ice cover in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 was nine feet thick, a significant decline from the 1980s—contradicts data cited in widely circulated reports by Washington Post columnist George F. Will that sea ice in the Arctic has not significantly declined since 1979. [my emphasis]
Hard to read it as anything but a rebuke from the news team to Post editor Fred Hiatt and his editorial page’s “multi-layer editing process,” which allowed Will to lie and mislead on climate change three times just in the last few months, even after being corrected, publicly, by multiple sources.
Along the same lines, see this new piece on the Post’s weather blog, by Andrew Freeman: “Will Misleads Readers on Climate Science - Again.”
In response to the Will controversy, numerous people have made the point that people who work for the Post—the ones who aren’t full of shit—have a responsibility to speak out about their employer’s willingness to mislead readers.
It appears some of them are trying.Photo: "Losing their home"
Today, Washington Post reporters Juliet... more
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Declining ice thickness and what is looking like the second lowest coverage on record means that Arctic sea ice may well have reached its lowest levels ever in terms of total volume.
Final figures on minimum ice coverage for 2008 are expected in a matter of days, but they are already flirting with last year’s record low of 1.59 million square miles, or 4.13 million square kilometres.
“If you take reduced ice thickness into account, there is probably less ice overall in the Arctic this year than in any other year since monitoring began,” said Martin Sommerkorn, WWF International Arctic Programme’s Senior Climate Change Advisor. “This is also the first year that the Northwest Passage over the top of North America, and the Northeast Passage over the top of Russia are both free of ice.”
Dr. Sommerkorn said the continuing loss of older, thicker ice, means that the Arctic ice cover is following a trend of becoming younger and thinner each year. The area of ice that is at least 5 years old has decreased by 56% between 1985 and 2007. The oldest ice types have essentially disappeared. Taken together, the new figures clearly show the Arctic is experiencing the continuation of an accelerated declining trend. Declining ice thickness and what is looking like the second lowest coverage on record... more
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More ominous signs Wednesday have scientists saying that a global warming "tipping point" in the Arctic seems to be happening before their eyes: Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is at its second lowest level in about 30 years.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that sea ice in the Arctic now covers about 2.03 million square miles. The lowest point since satellite measurements began in 1979 was 1.65 million square miles set last September.
With about three weeks left in the Arctic summer, this year could wind up breaking that previous record, scientists said.
On top of that, researchers were investigating "alarming" reports in the last few days of the release of methane from long frozen Arctic waters, possibly from the warming of the sea, said Greenpeace climate scientist Bill Hare, who was attending a climate conference in Ghana. Giant burps of methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas, is a long feared effect of warming in the Arctic that would accelerate warming even more, according to scientists.
Overall, the picture of what's happening in the Arctic is getting worse, said Bob Corell, who headed a multinational scientific assessment of Arctic conditions a few years ago: "We're moving beyond a point of no return." More ominous signs Wednesday have scientists saying that a global warming... more
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