tagged w/ 2012 Presidential Campaign
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With two days to go, Obama's odds of winning re-election have reached their highest level ever, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.
Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a solid lead, though with much less conviction.
These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.
Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.
Let's go to the data...
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 85% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-election-odds-2012-10-z#ixzz2BKVemXySWith two days to go, Obama's odds of winning re-election have reached their... more
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4 Days To Go: Obama Fights The Good Fight With Favorable October Jobs Numbers
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On Monday afternoon, “Mother Jones Magazine” posted a short leaked video online that captured Mitt Romney at an exclusive fundraising event that offered a rare glimpse of his personal views. Speaking at a private fundraising reception earlier this year with millionaire donors in Boca Raton, Florida, Romney described almost half of Americans as “people who pay no income tax” and are “dependent upon government.”
Those voters, he said, would probably support President Obama because they believe they are “victims” who are “entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.” With its unvarnished language, the short video clip seems to undermine what Romney’s aides have tried to argue is an enduring attribute that would appeal to independent voters: a sense that Mr. Romney is, at base, an empathetic and caring man.
Now, “Mother Jones” has posted the full 49-minute secret video of Romney speaking at that May 17th fundraiser, captured raw and uncut. In addition to his denigrating comments about poor people, Romney’s remarks about a critical area of foreign policy set off another media firestorm, generating headlines around the world. Responding to a question about the “Palestinian problem,” Romney said peace in the Middle East is not possible and a Palestinian state is not feasible, telling his wealthy donors that Palestinians have “no interest whatsoever in establishing peace and that the pathway to peace is almost unthinkable to accomplish.”
Romney’s remarks, degrading nearly half of the electorate, sent the Romney campaign, which was already rocked by infighting, into panic mode. The new video confirms the impression of a callous Mitt Romney who has little idea of how Americans actually live. Further, the additional comments in this full-length secret video solidify previous impressions that Romney can be quite a bully to those who are not a part of his small exclusive group.
This piece includes a photograph, as well as videos of the full 49-minute secret video.
http://disembedded.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/the-callous-mitt-romney-the-full-secret-video-of-romneys-private-fundraiser/On Monday afternoon, “Mother Jones Magazine” posted a short leaked video... more
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A leaked video posted online Monday afternoon by “Mother Jones Magazine” of Mitt Romney at an exclusive fundraising event offers a rare glimpse of his personal views. During a private reception earlier this year with millionaire donors in Boca Raton, Florida, Romney described almost half of Americans as “people who pay no income tax” and are “dependent upon government.”
Those voters, he said, would probably support President Obama because they believe they are “victims” who are “entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.” With its unvarnished language, the video seems to undermine what Romney’s aides have argued is an enduring attribute that would appeal to independent voters: a sense that Mr. Romney is, at base, an empathetic and caring man.
Democrats quickly condemned the remarks as insensitive, and President Obama’s campaign accused Mr. Romney of having “disdainfully written off half the nation.”
This piece includes the leaked video.
http://disembedded.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/romney-tells-wealthy-donors-americans-arent-entitled-to-health-care-food-housing/A leaked video posted online Monday afternoon by “Mother Jones Magazine”... more
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Many political commentators speculated that once Mitt Romney put Paul Ryan on his ticket, the campaign would become one about two competing visions for the country, finally a campaign about substance. But just days later, the 2012 presidential campaign is already turning into what many commentators say is one of the nastiest and most personal campaigns in modern times, with one side accusing the other of coming “unhinged,” while the other invokes charges of anger and hate.
However, going negative is nothing new, as this montage of 22 presidential campaign ads, from Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson through Romney and Obama, clearly demonstrates. Thanks to a retrospective from the Museum of the Moving Image, which compiled dozens of presidential campaign spots from 1952 through 2008, viewers can dive deep into the fascinating history of a unique brand of television advertising. This montage represents the breadth of strategies and styles over six decades of presidential political wars in the media.
This piece includes photographs and a documentary short film.
http://disembedded.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/watch-60-years-of-nasty-presidential-campaign-ads/Many political commentators speculated that once Mitt Romney put Paul Ryan on his... more
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