An underwater hockey stick: 20th century warming unprecedented over past 1000 years

It seems that the less technical a person is, the more they believe that 'science' has already 'proven' the AGW premise.

It's a mistake to expect critical thinking out of someone who 'just knows' the answer.

Whenever someone refers to 'consensus' as science, you know you're being told a story.

I presume that you're attempting to claim that Dr. Mann's work was vindicated?

All I've seen so far is agreement from other climatologists, ie - other atmospheric modelers. I have yet to see any claims that he did it right from actual statistics experts. In contrast, I've seen more confirmation that he did it wrong, as Dr. Muller also says.

I have seen criticisms from actual statistics experts, and from physicists. If I'm forced decide who to believe between a scientist from a 'hard' science profession like physics or astrophysics vs an atmospheric modeler, I feel safer believing a member of the 'hard' sciences. Especially after reading the emails released under Climategate.

You'll find a lot of us in the computer science world less trusting of computer model results than the general public. And you'll find us a lot less trusting after reading the emails released during the Climategate scandal.

Chris Shaker

Somehow, this feels like Twitter, where people don't actually read your responses to their writings.

Typical knee jerk response. Claim that the professor is a tool of the fossil fuel industry.

You didn't actually bother to respond about the other two Astrophysics professors. And it seems unlikely that you actually had time to read the URLs.

Peer reviewed science? I still haven't seen Dr. Mann admit to his statistics errors.

Professor Richard A. Muller is in the Department of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley, and Faculty Senior Scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, where he is also associated with the Institute for Nuclear and Particle Astrophysics. Muller has verified problems with Dr. Mann's work. Search for 'Global Warming Bombshell' at

http://muller.lbl.gov/.

"A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics". "McIntyre and McKitrick sent their detailed analysis to Nature magazine for publication, and it was extensively refereed. But their paper was finally rejected. In frustration, McIntyre and McKitrick put the entire record of their submission and the referee reports on a Web page for all to see. If you look, you'll see that McIntyre and McKitrick have found numerous other problems with the Mann analysis. I emphasize the bug in their PCA program simply because it is so blatant and so easy to understand. Apparently, Mann and his colleagues never tested their program with the standard Monte Carlo approach, or they would have discovered the error themselves. Other and different criticisms of the hockey stick are emerging (see, for example, the paper by Hans von Storch and colleagues in the September 30 issue of Science)."

So far, I have not seen Dr. Mann admit to ANY problems with the statistics behind his work. I have a very hard time respecting someone who can't admit their mistakes. And it's hard to take any claims of 'peer reviewed science' seriously from someone who can't admit their mistakes.

The facts, science, and math DO NOT CARE who used to work for which fossil fuel industry. True science is repeatable, reproducible, and can be verified by hostile parties.

Chris Shaker

I'm not assuming anything. I know it. And one little difference now, or rather, two. The pace of the warming, and the fact that the survival of our species is now at stake. Also, the warning by scientists that temperatures by the end of century couldl climb by six degrees celsius, which would be unprecedented in the history of human civilization.

Also from NatGeo:

http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/six-degrees-could-change-the-world...

"Global warming is already a fact: the snows of Kilimanjaro are melting away; massive boulders on the Matterhorn, snowbound for centuries, have begun to plunge in dramatic and dangerous rockfalls; and atoll nations of the Pacific are disappearing inch by inch under the waves.

Basing his conclusions on peer-reviewed articles in leading climatology, geophysics, biology, and Earth system science journals, Lynas explains in unflinching detail the processes and effects of this unprecedented phenomenon, degree by degree. He draws on the latest research and sophisticated computer models as well as paleoclimatic reconstructions of the past that show conclusively that today’s climate change is a new and different challenge, not the routine swing of a slow climatic pendulum."

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/six-degrees/

An explanation was given in the post above: "The grey lines to the right of the graph are shaded as that part of the core was disturbed by the coring process." It is also of that one particular region, with the two graphs below it representing the Western Hemisphere which are complete.

The graph above is incomplete. See those squiggly right after 1900, those say that the graph jumps a large number of years into the future, but they don't say how far into the future they jump.

"Additional projected 21st Century warming will produce a climate unlike anything experienced in the history of human civilization."

That says it all. But remember, this was done from the viewpoint of science. Not from the viewpoint of an oil executive or stockholder; not from the viewpoint of a jealous, bitter, myopic Al Gore hater; not from the view of a RW religious tea party zealot looking for votes.

The window scientists spoke of that was closing is more than halfway shut, meaning there is still some time to do something concrete to decrease emissions to stave off the worst effects of climate chaos/climate change/global warming/global climate disruption, or whatever you wish to call it (the semantics of this is nothing but a distractionary issue to those looking to divert this discussion.) We have to have a definitive plan to decrease carbon as well as other GHGs in our atmosphere. We can no longer afford to continue to dump the millions of tons daily that we are now.

Deforestation, carbon loss through peatlands, wetlands, forests, industrial agriculture alone accounts for about 30% of emissions as a whole. It doesn't take some huge technological fix ( such as atmospheric geoengineering that people like Bill Gates are hoping to score big from to fill his bank account while doing nothing to call for solutions like those we already have at our disposal) that is dangerous, unproven to be effective, and will take longer to bring to us than the time we have to work with.

What it takes is for this tit for tat to stop and for people to finally come together to say
hey, we can farm more sustainably to sequester carbon...let's do that! Hey,we can stop cutting down the rainforests and learn to live with less to preserve it for our children...let's do that! Hey, the sun is shining over our heads and it is hot and strong. We can use it to make electricity along with using the other natural elements of the Earth in a cleaner safer way like wind and Earth's heat, and the waves of the ocean...let's do that! Hey, those polluting our atmosphere are getting away with profits while our health is threatened... let's place a revenue neutral tax on the carbon they release in order to move them to cleaner energy and to benefit our economy so we can afford those safer cleaner ways and give jobs to our people... we can do that!
Hey, our "leaders" are procrastinating on doing what is morally right for us and our future because they are bought and sold by greedy oil and coal companies... let's vote them out!

See, it only takes us to stop thinking of this as so hard and impossible and to see that the solutions are within ourselves and the distance of our own hands if we only would come to our senses...before it really is too late. I really don't know what else there is to say. If we don't get it, we don't deserve this planet. Then we can hang our heads in failure while getting all excited at some distant planet found that we have no connection to.