The True Vote Model (1968-2008)
A demonstration version of the Excel Recursive True Vote Model is available as a Google Docs spreadsheet.
Go to this post and click on the link to the model:
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModeling.htm
We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media. It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote. This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares.
In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes. Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%). Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.
In the 1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican. We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.
Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote. Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies. Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized. Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted. In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming. Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified. Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. Its vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.
Go to this post and click on the link to the model:
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModeling.htm
We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media. It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote. This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares.
In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes. Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%). Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.
In the 1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican. We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.
Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote. Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies. Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized. Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted. In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming. Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified. Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. Its vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.
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- groups:
- Tech
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- tags:
- Elections, Election Fraud, Exit Polls
