Tech | June 21, 2011 | 45 comments

Fastest sea level rise in two millennia linked to increasing global temperatures

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JanforGore
The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic coast is greater now than at any time in the past 2,000 years--and has shown a consistent link between changes in global mean surface temperature and sea level.

The findings are published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The research, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), was conducted by Andrew Kemp, Yale University; Benjamin Horton, University of Pennsylvania; Jeffrey Donnelly, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Michael Mann, Pennsylvania State University; Martin Vermeer, Aalto University School of Engineering, Finland; and Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.

"Having a detailed picture of rates of sea level change over the past two millennia provides an important context for understanding current and potential future changes," says Paul Cutler, program director in NSF's Division of Earth Sciences.

"It's especially valuable for anticipating the evolution of coastal systems," he says, "in which more than half the world's population now lives."

Adds Kemp, "Scenarios of future rise are dependent on understanding the response of sea level to climate changes. Accurate estimates of past sea-level variability provide a context for such projections."

Kemp and colleagues developed the first continuous sea-level reconstruction for the past 2,000 years, and compared variations in global temperature to changes in sea level over that time period.

The team found that sea level was relatively stable from 200 BC to 1,000 AD.

Then in the 11th century, sea level rose by about half a millimeter each year for 400 years, linked with a warm climate period known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

Then there was a second period of stable sea level during a cooler period called the Little Ice Age. It persisted until the late 19th century.

Since the late 19th century, sea level has risen by more than 2 millimeters per year on average, the steepest rate for more than 2,100 years.

"Sea-level rise is a potentially disastrous outcome of climate change," says Horton, "as rising temperatures melt land-based ice, and warm ocean waters."

To reconstruct sea level, the scientists used microfossils called foraminifera preserved in sediment cores extracted from coastal salt marshes in North Carolina. The age of the cores was estimated using radiocarbon dating and other techniques.

To test the validity of their approach, the team compared its reconstructions with tide-gauge measurements from North Carolina for the past 80 years, and global tide-gauge records for the past 300 years.

A second reconstruction from Massachusetts confirmed their findings.

more at the link.
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45 comments // Fastest sea level rise in two millennia linked to increasing global temperatures

  • 14_Crusaders
  • 14_Crusaders
  • Wyley_Wombat
    • 0
      Wyley_Wombat  
    • The Climate Change deniers will never be convinced. They have the line of BS that they've been fed and will continue to spew out denials based on corporate propaganda. Only when oceanfront McMansions start to flood out and slip into the sea, will they come running, whining, begging science to to save them. It will be too late then if it is not already.

    • 11 months ago
  • thedirtman
    • 0
      thedirtman  
    • The American public is less likely to believe in global warming than it was just five years ago. Yet, paradoxically, scientists are more confident than ever that climate change is real and caused largely by human activities.

      Something a bit strange is happening with public opinion and climate change.

      Anthony Leiserowitz, who directs the Yale University Project on Climate Change Communication, delved into this in a recent poll. He not only asked citizens what they thought of climate change, he also asked them to estimate how climate scientists feel about global warming.

      "Only 13 percent of Americans got the correct answer, which is that in fact about 97 percent of American scientists say that climate change is happening, and about a third of Americans just simply say they don't know," he said.

      http://www.npr.org/2011/06/21/137309964/climate-change-public-skeptical-scientis...

    • 11 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • 0
      JanforGore  
    • thedirtman:

      There is a huge imbalance in what they see in media regarding this. That is why I am actually angry at environmental organizations that aren't out here putting up billboards, making ads and speaking out more. Where are the solar energy/renewable energy ads to counter the API/Koch funded ads we see on cable? All we see are ads for oil, natural gas and drugs.The fossil fuel and pharmaceutical companies have a chokehold on the media and they are a willing accomplice for the $$$$$$$. This is also why I think it is imperative that "independent" networks like Current do more too to get information out to people about this.

    • 11 months ago
  • thedirtman
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • JanforGore:

      Maybe the Crude Oil, Natural Gas & Coal~Fossil people supplied funding early on when the environmental groups began => FUELING THEM INTO GROWTH, giving them a later leverage to pull out and leave the environmentalists beached and dying like so many whales. GOT'CHA.

      Just a thought. The impact of a wink~wink and a "you lose your jobs" would be plenty enough to silence GreenPeace and others.

      Which means all that $4-a-gallon the American Public was paying into gasoline pumps was being turned around to silence the groups you Jan are now asking WHY ARE YOU SILENT?

    • 11 months ago
  • KittinPa
    • 0
      KittinPa  
    • Excellent article. Nice to be read true and not distorted scientific data. Just hoping that being at 711 ft above sea level does not require the services of Noah and his crew.

    • 11 months ago
  • dkl165
    • 0
      dkl165  
    • How can hey be sure of the measurements for the past 2000 years? I would especially not trust historical records going back 300 years because the measuring instruments were most likely very crude, and thus unreliable.

    • 11 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • dkl165
    • 0
      dkl165  
    • JanforGore:

      "Then in the 11th century, sea level rose by about half a millimeter each year for 400 years, linked with a warm climate period known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly."

      Are in intending to imply by this article that humans are causing the climate change? Or furthermore, are we even at risk? This article almost insinuates this is a natural occurence and has happened approximately 1000 years ago, long before humans began emitting carbon dioxide to the extent that we are today.

    • 11 months ago
  • thedirtman
    • 0
      thedirtman  
    • dkl165:

      Climate change does happen all the time to a modest extent. Climate change is like a lion. The Greenhouse Effect is like a sharp stick. Anthropogenic Global Warming is like poking the lion in the eye with a sharp stick.

    • 11 months ago
  • coolplanet
    • +2
      coolplanet  
    • dkl165:

      Ice cores, sea sediment and geologic strata record atmospheric chemistry, sea levels and global climate for the past hundreds of thousands of years.
      You confuse meteorology with climatology.
      Even tree ring research from 5,000 year old Bristlecone pine trees tell us that something is serious wrong with our weather patterns of late.
      The science is not crude.
      Human ignorance IS!

    • 11 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • JanforGore
    • 0
      JanforGore  
    • dkl165:

      Perhaps (deliberately?) you are overlooking the main premise of this... the PACE of the rise we are experiencing NOW on the Atlantic coast and the research done that ties it to rising surface temperature which backs up that human activities are contributing and pushing the forces of the Earth at an excelerated pace NOW. Why is there always one person in each of these threads who tries to derail this main premise by bringing up the human vs natural red herrring? Don't worry, you can sit back and do nothing like you have been if it makes you feel better. There are plenty of us who actually do a give a damn about this. And of course, you cherrypick only the sentence you wish to use to make a point you cannot back up. Maybe you should read the entire article again starting with the title in order to understand why this is so important to us NOW.

    • 11 months ago
  • dkl165
    • +1
      dkl165  
    • JanforGore:

      I don't know Jan... I believe there is some merit, and humans are causing some of the temperature change, however I have been skeptical of the changes greenies have promoted over the last five years.

      One major change greenies have promoted are Compact Fluorescent Lightbulbs. Sure they save energy, but they just contain mercury that make people sick and contaminate the environment more. Everyone is screaming hybrid cars, but what do we do with all the batteries and the acid in them once they die?

      It is almost a marketing scheme in a sense as these greenie companies are making a killing in scaring people into buying more efficient products as we fill our landfills with our inefficient old consumer goods. It is almost like we have turned into a bunch of Chicken Littles screaming the sky is falling. Is it really falling? Should we believe Nostradamus in thinking the world will end in 2012? I don't know Jan. I'm skeptical...

    • 11 months ago
  • Warren_Merrill
    • +4
      Warren_Merrill  
    • JanforGore:

      There have been statement after statement, If we don't do something now ****** will cease to exist by ******. None of it has happened. It gets a little tiresome to hear. I believe in taking care of the environment. There needs to be a balance between business and the environment. Much of the radical environmentalism kills jobs. Killing jobs affects average people. I don't believe in radical fanaticism where the world is going to end.

    • 11 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • -1
      JanforGore  
    • Warren_Merrill:

      Just because it has not happened to YOU does not mean it is not affecting people elsewhere on the globe. This just confirms your myopic selfish world view. And spare me your "job killing" BS. If anything, this can spark a job revolution. OLD redudant debunked argument.

    • 11 months ago
  • Warren_Merrill
  • pollie_graff
  • nobsartist
  • Alanb4130
    • 0
      Alanb4130  
    • The facts are starting to pile up pertaining to climate change. For any Republicans that try and dispute the idea of climate change they need to be publicly put in their place.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • Alanb4130:

      You haven't seen NUTHIN' yet man. The increased ocean water weight is SQUEEGEEING more Methane out of the ocean floor... PLUS the sheer weight is pressing more H2O into an evaporated state. That's what's putting so much excessive moisture up into the atmosphere feeding all these floodstorms.

      All my own opinions not backed up by reputable scientists. If I'm right though the increasing ocean rise has just begun so my conclusions will GET A GREAT DEAL WORSE FOR AT LEASE THE NEXT DECADE. Rats, I need to buy a boat. Or a submarine. Hey, maybe some neighbors would wanna throw in together on a retired sub!!!

    • 11 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • Alanb4130
  • JanforGore
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • JanforGore:

      You explain it much better than I can. So many people are bought off... having learned the ropes passed down to them. It's bigger than just politicians. It's a big chunk of population that knows they have to keep the Poor being the Poor in order to stay higher up the totem pole of life. Many of the Poor have known this for a long long time so in order to keep their SANITY they developed ways to enjoy life as "The Poor". It is a logical reaction but, the Haves see it and claim the Poor have been like that ALL ON THEIR OWN, as if they are naturally greedy for handouts.

      It only appears that way. The Haves spin everything into not being their fault. It surprises me every day this entire POWDERKEG DOESN'T GO UP.

    • 11 months ago
  • Bmad
  • JanforGore
    • -2
      JanforGore  
    • Gravity_Man:

      Scientists have confirmed that evapotranspiration is a part of this. Warmer temperatures are evaporating more ocean waters and dumping them on land, combined with what is already up in the atmosphere and the forcings we keep creating by adding more GHG emissions to it. The positive feedback loop is in full swing, but to listen to the same drones you would think this is just any usual event. The globe is warming and through the addition of our forcings to nature we are actually affecting the hydrologic cycle and it is dispersing extreme precipitation in some places and leaving other areas dependent on agriclture in drought. This makes it hard to think about feeding the world of the present and the future. With over half the world in either an extreme flood or drought state, diseases, hunger and poverty are assured. We have spent so many years entertaining the ravings of greedy lying politicians and oil shills that now we truly have a global crisis on our hands we are ill prepared to deal with.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • -2
      Gravity_Man  
    • JanforGore:

      I recall that the pig in the brick house laughed at his fellow pigs when their straw and stick homes blew away, floated away, slid down into the ravine away, struck by tsunami demolished away.

      But perhaps he sent them aid later.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
  • Steamed_N_More
  • Milieu
  • Warren_Merrill
    • 0
      Warren_Merrill  
    • Milieu:

      Who cares who printed the story I posted? There are many online sources with the same story. The research sources (US National Solar Observatory and the US Air Force Research Laboratory) are the only ones who matter not which source I selected for the reprint. The warming and cooling of the planet has gone on for milleniums. Facts are facts. Except for liberals.

      As usual I'll refrain from directing insults at individual posters. You can attack the messenger all you want. It doesn't change the truth.

    • 11 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • Warren_Merrill
  • Warren_Merrill
    • 0
      Warren_Merrill  
    • Please explain how global warming exists when many scientists now see the planet soon to be entering a "Little Ice Age?" The reason for the Ice Age will be a reduction in solar activity on the sun. It would then make sense the reason for global warming would have been the past increase in solar activity. The existing trends have been occuring on earth for thousands of years.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • -1
      Gravity_Man  
    • Warren_Merrill:

      Hmm. With increased ocean water (warmth) and less ice (more warmth) the two combined should counterbalance away any projected little Ice Age from reduced solar activity.

      But that still leaves the floods and droughts swinging rather wildly around, plus the trees burning is making things worse. And actually, there's been increased volcanic eruptions this past year (ALSO MORE WARMTH).

      But the volcano-ejected material is seeding the clouds. What we have here good fellow is A TRAIN WRECK IN THE CLOUDS. What I mean by that is we are seeing a massive H2O transference-in-prgress from 1. polar ice caps melting to 2. oceans Mega-Evaporating to 3. RAIN~RAIN~RAIN.

      We may all be headed for a Washinton state or Great Britain rainy season that lasts a very long time, unless it keeps spot-hitting some places more than others. On the other hand the Good News is all the road oil buildup and hog farms and poison fertilizers are all being washed off the continents.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
  • thedirtman
    • 0
      thedirtman  
    • Warren_Merrill:

      It's something like this:

      Solar activity -0.05 degrees
      Milankovitch Effect -0.01
      Volanoes + or - 0.1
      Global Warming +0.5

      Add them together it is still about 0.5.
      It would be getting cooler without the carbon emissions, but since there are excessive carbon emissions it is getting warmer.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • -2
      Gravity_Man  
    • thedirtman:

      In that case the Do-Nothing Care-about-Nothing Majority is as right today as it has ALWAYS BEEN. Live life and let the worry warts do the worrying for us!

      JanForGore is balancing out many thousands by her incessant worrying, and posting, always posting. Thank goodness she isn't causing any real or lasting damage with her pathological worrying. She must be a closet psychopath what with the way she wants to control everybody, trying to turn them into a world class worrier too.

      We should worry for her.

    • 11 months ago
  • thedirtman
    • 0
      thedirtman  
    • Gravity_Man:

      There is a line between pathological worry and positive concern, somewheres. Here we are simply posting. We are not trying to get inside people's heads and examine them.

      JanforGore and I both look at a glass and see it half full. I don't see where posting often is proof of incessant worry. There are other people on Current that look at a glass and see it half empty. Sometimes I find this confusing, initially, but it is something I remember with time, and learn that this is their aspect in life. It is really no big deal at all.

      I say let people post what they want. We learn through discussion and examination. This is healthy.

    • 11 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • thedirtman:

      Sometimes I post "tongue-in-cheek", other times I take a big shoe stretcher to work. It breaks up the burning scene in Gone With the Wind WATCHING PLANET EARTH BEING FLUSHED DOWN A TOILET.

      That's literal. You wouldn't like me always literal. Literal say:

      => OBAMA IS A FAIL ALL HANDS LOST DROWNED IN HALF EMPTY CUP.
      => OBAMA IS A FAIL ALL HANDS LOST DROWNED IN HALF EMPTY CUP.
      => OBAMA IS A FAIL ALL HANDS LOST DROWNED IN HALF EMPTY CUP.

    • 11 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
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