Increase in particles high in Earth’s atmosphere has offset some recent climate warming

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- coolplanet
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NOAA study: Increase in particles high in Earth’s atmosphere has offset some recent climate warming
July 21, 2011
A recent increase in the abundance of particles high in the atmosphere has offset about a third of the current climate warming influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) change during the past decade, according to a new study led by NOAA and published today in the online edition of Science.
In the stratosphere, miles above Earth’s surface, small, airborne particles reflect sunlight back into space, which leads to a cooling influence at the ground. These particles are also called “aerosols," and the new paper explores their recent climate effects -- the reasons behind their increase remain the subject of ongoing research.
“Since the year 2000, stratospheric aerosols have caused a slower rate of climate warming than we would have seen without them,” says John Daniel, a physicist at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in Boulder, Colo. and an author of the new study.
The new study focused on the most recent decade, when the amount of aerosol in the stratosphere has been in something of a “background” state, lacking sharp upward spikes from very large volcanic eruptions. The authors analyzed measurements from several independent sources – satellites and several types of ground instruments – and found a definitive increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000.
“Stratospheric aerosol increased surprisingly rapidly in that time, almost doubling during the decade,” Daniel said. “The increase in aerosols since 2000 implies a cooling effect of about 0.1 watts per square meter – enough to offset some of the 0.28 watts per square meter warming effect from the carbon dioxide increase during that same period.”
The reasons for the 10-year increase in stratospheric aerosols are not fully understood and are the subject of ongoing research, says coauthor Ryan Neely, with the University of Colorado and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). Likely suspects are natural sources – smaller volcanic eruptions – and/or human activities, which could have emitted the sulfur-containing gases, such as sulfur dioxide, that react in the atmosphere to form reflective aerosol particles.
Daniel and colleagues with NOAA, CIRES, the University of Colorado, NASA, and the University of Paris used a climate model to explore how changes in the stratosphere’s aerosol content could affect global climate change – both in the last decade, and projected into the future. The team concluded that models miss an important cooling factor if they don’t account for the influence of stratospheric aerosol, or don’t include recent changes in stratospheric aerosol levels.
Moreover, future global temperatures will depend on stratospheric aerosol. The warming from greenhouse gases and aerosols calculated for the coming decade can vary by almost a factor of two — depending on whether aerosols continue to increase at the same rate as over the past decade, or if instead they decrease to very low levels, such as those experienced in 1960.
If stratospheric aerosol levels continue to increase, temperatures will not rise as quickly as they would otherwise, said Ellsworth Dutton, also with NOAA ESRL and a co-author on the paper. Conversely, if stratospheric aerosol levels decrease, temperatures would increase faster. Dutton and his colleagues use the term “persistently variable” to describe how the background levels of aerosol in Earth’s stratosphere can change from one decade to the next, even in the absence of major volcanic activity.
Ultimately, by incorporating the ups and downs of stratospheric aerosols, climate models will be able to give not only better estimates of future climate change, but also better explanations of past climate changes.
“The ‘background’ stratospheric aerosols are more of a player than we thought,” said Daniel. “The last decade has shown us that it doesn’t take an extremely large volcanic eruption for these aerosols to be important to climate.”
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coolplanet
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Anyone else notice that IceKat et al are absent from this discussion?
You would think they'd be all over this story saying "I told you so."
Guess they can't wrap their brains around this development of science.
The denier websites haven't yet photoshopped fake graphs to confuse the masses even further. - 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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Gravity_Man
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coolplanet:
Well, when Russia, China, Africa, India AND the United States, oops forgot Japan, all getting hit at the same time, plus volcanoes in BOTH HEMISPHERES cranking out extra gases since June, and then Japan keeps taking one hit after another a royal pounding, what can you do? The space between disasters has shrunk.
Not even mentioning the fracking. So I would imagine they're sitting back waiting for a sluce of hurricanes to swoop upon us and replenish the ground water tables, and snows on Mt. Kilimanjaro and the Arctic to pull everything back into proper wheel alignment.
Without anyone having to Repent and change their ways!!! Notice however how the News reports 100+ days of temperatures above 100 degreesF instead of calling it 3 1/2 months, because keeping the terminology in DAYS maintains an illusion of NOT BEING MONTHS... because if people start thinking in terms of MONTHS THEY ALSO START THINKING IN TERMS OF YEARS, which would likely push the herd into a panic~stampede.
And that my friend is what they seek to stall out.
They are very good at using advanced psychological tricks. By being quiet they hope to convince the herd to keep grazing and not see the wolves have multiplied around their borders and have in fact been dragging many more away to be chewed up and eaten.
End Result being the paradigm shift that is needed to happen doesn't happen. Nothing gets released invented by Nikolai Tesla 70-80-90 YEARS AGO; Floyd Sweet's VTA (vacuum triode amplifier) of 1987 doesn't get released. My engine running on recycled compressed air & steam sits on the shelf.
And the herd gets smaller, and smaller, and smaller. I've been dealing with these people since 2003 and so far they have won. They drug us through 7 years of Famine, chained to the back bumper of their pickup truck like rabid chipmunks. And they're doing their best to keep the truck gas mashed to the floor.
I imagine the goal is for one of the presidential candidates to start pulling energy out of a hat to secure the next election. Enjoy the highway.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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tverdell
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Does this mean that aliens are trying to save us?
- 10 months ago
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tverdell
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Gravity_Man
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tverdell:
hahaha Perhaps, the same way all the bulbs mysteriously blew out the first time they fired up the Hadron Collider. Aliens, or a God protecting His property. More than a few subscribe to that idea, recalling "we" [the stum-bumbling experimenters of all time] managed not to blow ourselves to smithereenies while testing the A-bombs.
There does seem to be an obvious pattern. Good detective tverdell.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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squarethecircle
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Not so sure some of the heat isn't rising from under our feet
- 10 months ago
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squarethecircle
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Gravity_Man
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squarethecircle:
Not as much as the heat rising from our WALLETS BURNING IN OUR PANTS.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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squarethecircle
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What they aren't saying is there has been an increase of volcanic activity globally. I don't care for argument anymore, the climate is changing regardless of the cause and we need to be prepared. CA and NV are showing persistent, huge releases of geyser and volcanic activity from ancient, "dormant" sites. Watch the radar if you don't believe me....keep your eyes open and be prepared to react.
- 10 months ago
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squarethecircle
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Gravity_Man
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squarethecircle:
Yep, when one tipping point is passed other tipping points are triggered. Like dominoes... So if the sulfur dioxide was to suddenly cut by 50% ~while holding current CO2 levels~ we could be roasting. Except hmm, we're already roasting.
ENTER THE DRAGON => DOUBLE BOILERS.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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coolplanet
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squarethecircle:
You present a great case for geothermal energy!
I hope you are right about an increase in volcanic activity globally explaining the doubling of atmospheric aerosols since 2000 because the alternative explanations are deeply troubling. - 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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JanforGore
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squarethecircle:
http://viewzone2.com/yellowstonex.html
They have been predicting a mega discharge from Yellowstone for years. And the Ring of Fire is also very active with earthquakes. There is no disputing that the Earth is preparing us for a huge change. She does not run on man's schedule.
- 10 months ago
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JanforGore
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squarethecircle
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coolplanet:
watched intense moisture venting outside of Las Vegas and into S CA all day yesterday. Lots of old volcanoes doing something out there. If I knew someone in the area,I'd ask them to go look.
- 10 months ago
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squarethecircle
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squarethecircle
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squarethecircle:
today I believe HAARP has been tickling the New Madrid
- 10 months ago
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squarethecircle
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coolplanet
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JanforGore:
Now an eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would REALLY cool the planet!
And frankly it might be the best thing that could happen to halt manmade extinctions. - 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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coolplanet
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squarethecircle:
I'm presently rereading Angels Don't Play This HAARP (Manning/Begich 1995) and WOW what an important book! High-frequency Active Auroral Research Project, originating with Reagan's SDI/Star Wars program, is a MUST READ for anyone interested in how seriously our government is fucking up the planet. It is certainly a good canidate for the doubling of atmospheric aerosols since 2000 as one of it's goals is to generate ozone in the upper stratosphere.
- 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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JanforGore
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We have reached a tipping point with the hydrologic cycle and the events precipitated from it are too real to now dispute.Therefore, what is left but to put out stories that will be seen as validating them and actually suspend the chief scientist who noted it's effects in the Arctic just when drilling is getting more heated (no pun intended,) as peak oil stares us down and companies are scrambling for ownership of what is left to control it. This is one aspect of the effects of biodistress making themselves known in such a pattern. The fossil fuel industry is sh***** its pants and looking for ways to make this look not so bad as we see hectare upon hectare of crops ruined, water becoming scarcer, conflicts and deaths. Now I will concede that this may have some truth to it, but it is not enough to be negligable in solving this crisis. And if it is due to some sort of secret geoengineering program being instituted by this government, watch out. The residual effects of playing with nature are unknown and can manifest themselves in ways that will only delay the inevitable as our behavior continues unabated. It is a false existence.
Also to clarify my comment, I am not saying this is a false report, I am saying that such reports will most certainly be twisted to validate the certain views of those who bank on others misinterpreting or not understanding them.
- 10 months ago
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JanforGore
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Gravity_Man
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JanforGore:
Adding more variables only accentuates the problem => SPIKES WORSEN. SPOT SPIKES.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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JanforGore
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Gravity_Man:
What else can you expect from humans?
- 10 months ago
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JanforGore
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coolplanet
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JanforGore:
While I totally agree with most of your post I don't interpret this article as disputing global warming and climate change. It implies that, if not for the mysterious doubling of atmospheric aerosols since 2000, Earth's surface temperatures would be much hotter. It also refutes the deniers #1 claim that volcanoes are the main cause of global warming.
What I find most disturbing is the doubling of atmospheric aerosols ever since W. Bush was "elected." This implies that geoengineering has been secretly occurring on a large scale for the past decade! - 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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JanforGore
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coolplanet:
Oh, I understand it doesn't dispute climate change and that Co2 is part of it. I am saying that it will most definitely be used by certain elements to do so and that we should not forget that we need to continue to keep working on natural ways to address climate change. Although, I was also thinking that it may be in part due to India and China burning more fossil fuels that emit S02 combined with some sort of geoengineering scheme that has clandestinely been in effect since Bush and being carried on still, hence the hesitancy in committing to any real action on it.
- 10 months ago
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JanforGore
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Gravity_Man
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JanforGore:
I EXPECT LESS BUMPS ON NEW RADIAL TIRES ACTUALLY!!!
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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Gravity_Man
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JanforGore:
Say Jan, I seem to recall that sulfur isn't so hot FOR HUMAN LUNGS EITHER.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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Gravity_Man
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Gravity_Man:
We're saved. We're saved. BY ACCIDENT, and all we had ta do was submit to increased EMPHYSEMA / LUNG CANCER!!! China, they saved our BACON WITHOUT MEANING TO!!!
(OK. Protected their own future Property!)
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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coolplanet
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Gravity_Man:
Also sulfur (S02) creates acid rain which acidifies lakes and oceans and kills trees.
- 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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Gravity_Man
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coolplanet:
That's RIGHT!!! Thanks. I had forgotten that. So now we're back to the Chinese trying to kill us! HA HA! I feel better now.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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Gravity_Man
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coolplanet:
Sulfur dioxide I think it comes from diesel trucks REAL BAD. Diesel exhaust is right vile, and some truckers when they filter truck oil they dump the used oil into their diesel fuel tanks. Those are the worst. I think they save $$$ not having to pay a fee for the old oil to be discarded properly. Just burn it out the stack.
I breathed a lot of exhaust when I was driving. The rubber boot around the shift stick on the floor would wear out and break and the mechanics had other things to do. Suction would pull some fumes in through the cracked/split rubber....
An engine that has no exhaust would be nice.
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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Gravity_Man
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coolplanet:
Sulfur dioxide doesn't come all by itself. Much mercury is pouring into the environment off all those extra coal plants. WHICH MEANS if the planet has an increase of one it also has an increase of the other. DUH. I, unlike everyone else, still eats plenty of SARDINES => SO I KNOW THESE THINGS OF WHICH I SPEAK!!!
- 10 months ago
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Gravity_Man
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM
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Damn, when they can't deny the devastating natural disasters associated with global warming which are plaguing the world, they pay some agency or department to spin some fakakta story to try and obscure reality! Not only is all of that vague, unquantifiable bullshit, if true at all, but there is no verifiable way to measure the actual and accurate emissions of CO2 occurring at every moment of our lives. They have no verifiable and reliable way to state exactly how fast and how much emissions will continue to pollute the environment. But, we have the evidence of it's lethal consequences, from lethal acidic rain to record droughts, heat waves, and floods! Let the enemies spin all they want, they can't refute reality, which may only get worse. This story has been paid for my the fossil fuel industry for sure. Hands down!
- 10 months ago
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM
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coolplanet
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM:
You misunderstand. Climatologists have been studying the Areosol Effect for decades and it is critically important to understand it's huge role in global warming. For instance, leading scientists in the field have proposed that the sudden warming in the 1980s partly resulted from the removal of S02 from smoke stacks to stop acid rain. That does not mean that the scientists promote acid rain or think that C02 is not responsible for global warming. They are merely attempting to better understand what causes warming and cooling of the atmosphere.
In order to refute the deniers we need to understand this phenomenon ourselves. Deniers usually
begin their argument claiming that volcanoes contribute to warming far more than humans ever could, and yet in fact volcanoes cool the climate with sulfur (S02).What I got from this article is that it would be a hell of a lot hotter from atmospheric carbon today if not for these mysterious aerosols. This is not propaganda but pure science. Gaia theorist James Lovelock has long pointed out that we are currently living in a "fool's climate" due to the aerosols from pollution and that if we suddenly stopped producing these aerosols the global temperature would spike by several degrees very quickly.
I hesitated posting this article because I could see how easily it could be misuderstood by both greens and deniers. Yet I also see how important it is for both greens and deniers to better understandthe role of carbon and sulfur in the atmosphere.
- 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM
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coolplanet:
You are wonderfully informed on these subjects in general, and I applaud you for it!
Admittedly, I am not sufficiently informed to question facts. But you cite James Lovelock as being a theorist, drawing suppositions from facts. In thought, there seems to be a question which I don't believe anyone is capable of answering with certainty. If the aerosol particles trap heat within our atmosphere, it must also shield and screen a certain amount of solar heat from entering our atmosphere. If science has conceived of a flawless way to quantify those two opposing forces, I applaud them as well. It occurs to me that any such statement on that issue must also be theory, however.
What I take into question most, however, and challenge, are the assertions of those who seek to justify the further polluting of our atmosphere for some alleged benefit, or doubt about it's destructiveness. The balance supporting this planet's life cycle was achieved very slowly over a long period of time. To suggest that it could become out of balance; short of a cataclysmic natural phenomenon, and therefore benefit from human industrial pollution on the scale which has and is occurring; which this article seems to permit, is extremely dangerous, if not a lethal notion. This is merely my reasoning, however, without the benefit of scientific education on the subject.
- 10 months ago
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM
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coolplanet
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM:
Thank you CSFCG!
I have struggled to understand the science of global warming ever since I first became aware of it in 1985. Finally in 2007 I decided to read every current popular book on the subject - pro and con - and at last it sunk in. It was Lovelock's breathtaking book, The Revenge of Gaia, that helped me grasp not only the science but the severity of what's happening.
Lovelock - recognised as one of the most important inventors and scientists of the past century - convinced me that the situation is far worse than anyone imagines and that it might be too late to reverse the damage already done, even if we stopped C02 emmissions yesterday. He proposes that the only hope we have to stop a 3 degree C rise in temperature is to convert agricultural waste into biochar and generate algae blooms in the oceans to sequester carbon dioxide (which he convincingly argues is FAR more dangerous to all life on Earth than nuclear waste or even meltdowns).
I love his definition of Gaia Theory:"A view of the Earth introduced in the 1980s that sees it as a self-regulating system made up from the totality of organisms, the surface rocks, the oceans and the atmosphere tightly coupled as an evolving system. The theory sees this system as having a goal--the regulation of surface conditions so as to always be favorable for contemporary life as possible. It is based on observations and theoretical models; it is fruitful and has made ten successful predictions."
- 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM
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coolplanet:
No one could have given better testimony about the value of that book. I'm going to save your comment so that I can get the book. I've been paying attention to the environment for 35 years, without making a scientific study of it. One doesn't have to be a scientist, however, to recognize the imperiled state of our environment. I continue to tell everyone that we can begin offsetting the CO2 content now by planting your giant trees. In fact, barriers of those trees could do a lot to offset dust storms in the west, couldn't they?
- 10 months ago
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM
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coolplanet
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COMMONSENSEFORCOMMONGOOD_COM:
I completely adore James Lovelock, especially when he's occasionally wrong (like when he insisted that chloroflurocarbons couldn't possibly threaten stratospheric ozone and invented the machine that discovered the ozone hole over Antarctica in 1980)!
Thanks for sharing the sequoia gospel. Yes they are the ultimate wind block because they are strong and like being planted close together. They thrive in climates that don't go below -15 F or above 110 F all over the world (especially Germany and England). The only thing is they need to be watered often in hot, dry climates until established and don't like to be planted beside streams.
- 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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letsliveinpeace
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Very informational article thanks for posting. Global warming is happening everywhere.
- 10 months ago
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letsliveinpeace
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coolplanet
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letsliveinpeace:
I can't stop wondering why “Stratospheric aerosol increased surprisingly rapidly in that time, almost doubling during the decade."
They don't know WHY!
There is a lot more to this story than they are telling us. - 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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JanforGore
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coolplanet:
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/
I don't espouse to everything on this page, but it sure does leave you wondering what sort of geoengineering regarding stratospheric aerosols has been going on based on the rapid increase. Isn't John Holdren who is on Obama's team a proponent of this as well? HMMM, part of the reason we see no action from this government? Again, looting the Arctic as it melts and doing this simply for profit to take advantage of it while its effects hurt real people as it is indeed a false choice. Treachery is then what this is.
- 10 months ago
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JanforGore
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coolplanet
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JanforGore:
Interesting website. Thanks!
I must admit that you have helped change my mind about geoengineering and nuclear energy as short term emergency responces to runaway global warming (although I still like agricultural biochar if done by farmers and not big business).
One thing I question about this website is the claim they are using heavy metals and aluminum to create stratospheric aerosols. Everything I've read by geoengineers proposes inexpensive sulfur dioxide, as is generated by volcanoes.
My prayer is that we simply have more volcanoes until we are able to wean ourselves off of fossil
fuels. - 10 months ago
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coolplanet
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coolplanet
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"a definitive increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000."
We need to contemplate and research this further.
Did Bush/Cheney initiate a secret bioengineering program?
Perhaps the chemtrail hypothesis is correct. - 10 months ago
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coolplanet