Tech | September 10, 2011 | 49 comments

China’s New Plan for Solar Power Supremacy

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coolplanet
by Melanie Hart

The U.S. media is abuzz over last week’s bankruptcy of thin-film solar manufacturer Solyndra LLC, with some conservative politicians trying to use the demise of the start-up to argue against federal financing for green energy. But the Chinese media is focusing on a far more important solar power development: two major energy plans that will lay the policy roadmap for China’s clean energy development over the next decade.

The first is the 12th Five Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development, covering 2011 to 2015, which focuses on sources of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass. The second is the Emerging Energy Industry Development Plan, covering 2011 to 2020, which also includes nuclear energy, clean coal, smart grid, and alternative fuel for new-energy vehicles.

The State Council, China’s national cabinet, is currently reviewing both plans, but it looks like the renewable energy plan for 2011-2015 will come out first. Details of the plan are already leaking to the press, and thus far, it looks like the biggest story will be solar. According to the latest leaks in the Chinese media, the new renewable energy plan will raise solar targets to unprecedented levels: 10 GW of installed solar capacity by 2015, including 9 GW from photovoltaic installations and 1 GW from solar thermal electric power generation, and 50 GW total installed capacity by 2020.[1]

The United States is currently ahead of China, with 2.6 GW installed solar capacity at year-end 2010. The United States is also leading in solar equipment, with $1.9 billion in overall net exports in 2010, and a $247 million trade surplus with China. But as Chinese policymakers prep for a major push on solar, U.S. policymakers are gearing up to slash funding for the basic support programs that created this impressive lead, and that means we could easily lose our edge to China.

For China, these new targets are truly big. As of year-end 2010, China had around 700 megawatts of installed solar capacity, so meeting the new 2015 target will require adding another 9.3 GW to the grid—a capacity expansion of over 1,000 percent during the 2011-2015 five-year plan period.[2]

Thus far, the big China renewable story has been wind. During the 11th Five-Year Plan for 2006-2010, the Chinese government funneled money and policy support into the wind sector. As a result, in 2010 China surpassed the United States in total wind capacity, and there are now four Chinese wind turbine manufacturers among the global top 10, up from zero just five years ago.

Now the Chinese have decided that solar is the next big thing. Internal critics of China’s clean energy planning process can point to overcapacity in wind power to argue that aggressive targets and subsidies are no longer needed in clean energy.[3] In the wind sector, China’s 11th Five-Year Plan awarded local officials for investment and capacity expansion, and those officials responded by building more wind farms than the transmission grid could handle.

Behind closed doors China’s traditional fossil-fuel interests—particularly the large and politically connected coal conglomerates—are using the overheating wind market to argue against preferential policies for renewable energy. Those interests are strong, and their resistance has reportedly disrupted the clean energy target-setting process and delayed these two long-awaited policy packages.[4]

Unlike wind, however, photovoltaic electricity generation is still trailing behind. Over the past five years, wind projects received 72 percent of China’s new clean energy investments, but solar received just over 6 percent. There is no overheating or excess capacity in solar, so China’s fossil-fuel interests have less political capital to resist aggressive state support programs.

Solar development has also reportedly gained a new political boost from the Japanese nuclear disaster. Chinese leaders are under pressure to dial back their nuclear power targets, but they have already pledged to expand non-fossil fuels to 15 percent of the country’s energy supply by 2020. To stay on track, any nuclear slowdown must be offset by another clean energy source such as solar, wind, or hydropower, and among the three, solar is the only sector that is not currently facing internal political challenges.

The new benchmarks being set for solar are a big increase over China’s previous solar targets. China’s 2007 Medium-and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy set a 2020 solar capacity target of 1.8 GW. That target has been climbing steadily, but even as recently as June 2011 many Chinese media outlets and government officials were quoting a 5 GW solar target for 2015 and a 20 GW target for 2020.[5] If the latest reports are correct, the new targets will be twice as high.

Chinese markets are already heating up over the news. According to the China Securities Journal, if China achieves the new 10 GW benchmark, the solar sector will likely expand by up to RMB 440 billion ($68.9 billion) over the 2011-2015 period.[6] Many marketwatchers actually expect the sector to grow even faster, possibly reaching 15 GW by 2015, which would entail an even larger expansion of up to RMB 690 billion.

The Chinese government has already handed out at least RMB 10 billion to subsidize around 642 MW (0.642 GW) in solar generation projects since 2009. And in August 2011 the National Development and Reform Commission launched a feed-in tariff for solar power generation. The new tariff sets benchmark prices for solar energy—minimum prices China’s grid operators must pay for solar power—and the tariff will soon be paired with clean energy quotas to guarantee market demand. These policies are already a strong first step toward providing a stable and attractive Chinese solar market.

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  1. groups:
    Community,   Tech,   Green,   Upstream
  2. tags:
    Solar Power Deniers are liars
  3.     
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49 comments // China’s New Plan for Solar Power Supremacy

  • DDJohnAdams
    • 0
      DDJohnAdams  
    • Another green jobs scam:
      http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/bobbeauprez/2011/09/11/obamas_pet_billion...

      The same week, solar energy investment analysts were already warning that Solyndra's business model was seriously flawed and that the hundreds of millions of dollars invested in the company "are going to be a huge waste." The same analysts criticized the Obama Administration's green energy policy as "misguided" for throwing vast sums at "a fledgling startup" (Solyndra) while the established solar companies like Evergreen Solar in Massachusetts were already struggling for market share and economic survival. A few months later, Evergreen closed US operations, laid off 800 workers, and moved their company to China .

    • 1 year ago
  • Schnookums
    • +2
      Schnookums  
    • Seems at times like Americans keep on innovating, and American Corporations keep on exporting those ideas to make tons of money for themselves via wage arbitrage overseas.

      In doing so, businesses actively help develop the global markets that compete with us domestically and our incomes.

    • 1 year ago
  • coolplanet
  • Schnookums
  • Varex_Sythe
    • +1
      Varex_Sythe  
    • I picture that our nation is a car that is, at least temporarily, broken down on the side of the road with two or three different people who represent different political interests acting as mechanics. They're all looking under the hood, each saying that there is something wrong, that something that is wrong is the same thing, yet it is different according to each one, and they cannot agree on how to fix it so we can get back on the road again.

      Meanwhile a car that represents China has caught up to us and seems to be passing us by... Not that such a thing is bad for China, more props to them for furthering their nations development. It just seems sad that so many of the political "mechanics" who are trying to fix our nation seem to have their heads so far up their own asses that they are more interested in receiving credit for good things rather than just fixing the problem.

    • 1 year ago
  • DanCastro
    • +2
      DanCastro  
    • Are we really ready to take a backseat to the Chinese in Tech like we did the Japanese after we "defeated" them in WWII? How about the next country we "defeat" is US? We need the jobs! ;=)

    • 1 year ago
  • JanforGore
    • +3
      JanforGore  
    • Image
    • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/27/china-canada-oil-sands-alberta-tar_n_88...

      I also think there is another dynamic to this. China wants the tarsands too. Hard to then know if they are doing this as an altuistic measure regarding solar, or if they are just looking to push the US out of the box on everything. I say then if this is true, look to Obama to approve this catastrophe not because we need jobs but because there is this tit for tat energy game going on between China and the US. This is why I am so frustrated that Obama was such a wuss regarding solar power in his jobs speech and I don't want to hear that he wouldn't get support from the goosesteppers if he mentioned it. The bully pulpit is called BULLY pulpit for a reason. So he will more than likely approve this toxic timebomb and that is what WE will get as far as "energy" while China and other countries continue to seize the moment. This shouldn't be about a competition, this is about doing what will ultimately sustain our planet and species. So again US you need to get in the 21st century now.

    • 1 year ago
  • Wyley_Wombat
    • +1
      Wyley_Wombat  
    • JanforGore:

      No it should not be a competition, That being said, the big big myth is that we can GROW the economy in order to save ourselves. Growing, requires resources and these are finite. If we, as all the nations of the world fail to realize that we need to make the shift from growth to sustainability, we are doomed.

    • 1 year ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • Wyley_Wombat:

      Well the point being that we can sustain growth with an infinite and renewable source across the board, only we lack the vision and will to do it. Even in China, they can't have the panels without the toxic oil. I think growth and greed are not mutually exclusive. But then that's why I'm not a politician.

    • 1 year ago
  • Wyley_Wombat
    • +1
      Wyley_Wombat  
    • If every house that has the exposure had a PV array on the roof, it would go a long way helping achieve sustainability. Of course I have heard lame ass excuses like "Oh they are soooo ugly"; These come from, you guessed it, baggers.

    • 1 year ago
  • JanforGore
  • ithink
    • -1
      ithink  
    • President Obama came into office in 2009 with a majority house which went to work sending bills to the senate where in truth he did not have a majority the gop had enough republican democrats to block nearly every thing he tried to do then2010 the dems stayed home and helped lose him the house and further weakened the senate which made it nearly impossible to get any thing done and now so many of you want to just complain about him not getting done what you wanted and he is weak and he needs to fight harder.No you have it all wrong he is the best man for the job it is we the voters who are weak and have fell down on the job.We have to help him before he can be able to help us we can do that in 2012. lets put our efforts to helping not hindering him.

    • 1 year ago
  • tverdell
  • kennymotown
  • coolplanet
  • David_H
  • coolplanet
  • coolplanet
  • David_H
  • coolplanet
  • JanforGore
  • artemis6
  • coolplanet
  • alexandrek
  • David_H
  • coolplanet
  • David_H
  • coolplanet
  • artemis6
    • +1
      artemis6  
    • David_H:

      You completely misunderstand me , sir . 40 million in environmentally superior cave homes , puts them far ahead of us . Not to mention their use of bio-gas and other hundreds year old earth structures . I posted about these things a few years ago , so you may not have seen them . And we , Throwing money to the Oil despots all these years , spending 100 thousand lives in pointless wars , like they were money , no I am American , one who reads , and we are the fools here . Imagine all that war money , Yes ? Now imagine how for we could be towards energy independence with it ......

    • 1 year ago
  • artemis6
    • 0
      artemis6  
    • alexandrek:

      Actually there was a pod on current years ago about these homes , handed down through families - no one even knew who built them - Built into solid stone caves , modernized , of course , to be as comfortable as an apartment today , but more so , due to constant temperatures in winter and summer ..... I guess it seemed to me commonly known , along with the earth communities in Toulong province ... but , you might know more about that .

    • 1 year ago
  • artemis6
  • Johnny_Los_Angeles
  • coolplanet
  • Swisher
  • Littlewolf
    • +3
      Littlewolf  
    • I think I better learn more Chinese than the two phrases I know - "I love you!" and "your ancestors had twisted balls!". And I better learn fast!

    • 1 year ago
  • alexandrek
  • coolplanet
    • +5
      coolplanet  
    • alexandrek:

      The reason China takes global warming and the need for renewable energy far more seriously than the United States is because most of China's political leaders are trained scientists whereas too many of America's politicians are religious zealots.

    • 1 year ago
  • alexandrek
  • coolplanet
    • +4
      coolplanet  
    • alexandrek:

      At least the Chinese are planting billions of trees every year to help counteract the damage they are doing by making all our crap for U.S.
      NatGeo covered a story this year about China's massive reforestation effort over the past decade. One man claimed to have planted over 100,000 trees and said that trucks of trees are the second most common truck on the roads. Trucks of coal are the first.
      I wish the Chinese people all the best.
      While Americans are still in denial and doing next to nothing about pollution China is busy solving the problem.

    • 1 year ago
  • Hardytoo
    • +3
      Hardytoo  
    • alexandrek:

      I so agree with you - to be a little on the funny side, was just watching a re-run of SNL and on Seth Myer's weekend update, he said "50,000 American kindergarten children learned to sing "good morning to you" to - and in China 10million were doing math.
      We should never underestimate an up and coming, very ambitious country like China.

    • 1 year ago
  • alexandrek
  • coolplanet
  • artemis6
  • coolplanet
    • +3
      coolplanet  
    • NY Post Fabricates Statistic To Vilify Green Jobs
      http://mediamatters.org/blog/201109060019

      September 06, 2011 6:00 pm ET by Jill Fitzsimmons

      In an editorial blasting President Obama's green jobs initiatives, the New York Post falsely claimed that despite significant investments in clean energy, California's "environmental sector has actually lost jobs, not gained them":

      “[T]he Obama administration's entire green-jobs initiative has been a massive boondoggle."

      As The New York Times reported last month, Obama's grand plan to create 5 million green jobs over 10 years has turned into an enormous "pipe dream."

      In California, for example, the environmental sector has actually lost jobs, not gained them.

      Which raises serious questions about this administration's ability to come up with any kind of plan that will productively address America's unemployment crisis.

      In fact, those job losses refer only to the San Jose metro area, not to the state of California as a whole, which has gained almost 80,000 green jobs since 2003 - a 4.2% annual increase - and leads the nation in the number of clean energy jobs.

      Those numbers come from a recent Brookings Institution report assessing green jobs nationally and regionally, which was the subject of the New York Times/Bay Citizen article cited by the New York Post editorial. The Times article has been criticized for cherry-picking information from the Brookings report to paint a misleadingly negative picture of green job growth.

      Contrary to the New York Post's dismissal of green jobs programs, Brookings found that Recovery Act investments contributed to a surge of growth in the clean economy, despite the recession:

      “[D]uring the middle of the recession--from 2008 to 2009--the clean economy grew faster than the rest of the economy, expanding at a rate of 8.3 percent. This is likely due, in part, to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which channeled large sums of public spending towards clean energy projects through much of 2009.”

      The report further concluded that its analysis "warrants excitement," adding that "smart policy support," rather than policy "uncertainties," will be required in order to make the most of promising clean economy segments:

      The measurements, trends, and discussions offered here provide an encouraging but also challenging assessment of the ongoing development of the clean economy in the United States and its regions. In many respects, the analysis warrants excitement. As the nation continues to search for new sources of high-quality growth, the present findings depict a sizable and diverse array of industry segments that is - in key private-sector areas - expanding rapidly at a time of sluggish national growth. With smart policy support, broader, more rapid growth seems possible. At the same time, however, the information presented here is challenging, most notably because the growth of the clean economy has almost certainly been depressed by significant policy problems and uncertainties.

      In that sense, what is most challenging here is the fundamental question raised by the dynamic growth but modest size of the most vibrant and promising segments of the clean economy.

      That question is: Will the nation marshal the will to make the most of those industries?

      The New York Post is not the first conservative media outlet to twist the facts to support its bizarre opposition to American clean energy.

      More at link

    • 1 year ago
  • JanforGore
    • +6
      JanforGore  
    • This government is a laughing stock. Do you see Obama what you missed in your jobs speech? When the hell are we going to stand up to these flatearther bullies!

    • 1 year ago
  • ampersand
    • +5
      ampersand  
    • JanforGore:

      Too late, or never, is my guess.
      The good news nationally is that solar photo-voltaic panels in the US continue to drop in price. As I have plenty of those, the good news locally is that I'm adding more solar hot water panels this week.
      It would be great to have a President with the type of grit to fight the troglodytes but I wouldn't hold my breath, Jan.

    • 1 year ago
  • Littlewolf
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • ampersand:

      Yes and that is the good news. Despite the constipation of this oil soaked government solar is soaring also despite the lies pumped out by certain interests. This is what frustrates me so, especially regarding our own economy and unemployment. This is an opportunity the likes of which we cannot pass up. Putting millions of people to work here in the US manufacturing solar panels for export rather than import and actually working to give more people in this country a chance to have it... but as you said the price is coming down and Moore's Law will dictate the eventuality that we must move on to the future. Unfortunately, the pace of that in corrolation to the pace of the changes we are seeing in this changing climate is slower where it matters. But as someone above stated, maybe China doing this will light a fire under the a**** of the usual detractors.

    • 1 year ago
  • coolplanet
    • +7
      coolplanet  
    • While rightwing presidential candidates and media poo-poo solar energy the Chinese are making it happen.
      Republicans are destroying our country!

    • 1 year ago
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