Tech | October 18, 2011 | 20 comments

Evidence builds that scientists underplay climate impacts

source: http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2011/10/climate-alarmism

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JanforGore
Far from being "alarmist," predictions from climate scientists in many cases are proving to be more conservative than observed climate-induced impacts.

The warnings were dire: 188 predictions showing that climate-induced changes to the environment would put 7 percent of all plant and animal species on the globe - one out of every 14 critters - at risk of extinction.

Scientists have been quite conservative in a lot of important and different areas. - Naomi Oreskes, University of California, San Diego

Predictions like these have earned climate scientists the obloquy from critics for being "alarmist" - dismissed for using inflated descriptions of doom and destruction to push for action, more grant money or a global government.

But as the impacts of climate change become apparent, many predictions are proving to underplay the actual impacts. Reality, in many instances, is proving to be far worse than most scientists expected.

"We're seeing mounting evidence now that the scientific community, rather than overstating the claim or being alarmist, is the opposite," said Naomi Oreskes, a science historian with the University of California, San Diego. "Scientists have been quite conservative ... in a lot of important and different areas."

Biased science
A decade ago scientists predicted the Arctic wouldn't be ice-free in summer until 2100. But the extent of summer ice in the North has rapidly shrunk and today covers 70 percent of the area it did in 1979. Now some scientists think the Arctic could be naught but open water within 25 years.

In August, a team lead by University of York researcher Chris Thomas published a study showing that plants and animals are moving to higher elevations twice as fast as predicted in response to rising temperatures. They're migrating north three times faster than expected, they found

As for extinctions, earlier this year two scientists at the University of Exeter paired predicted versus observed annihilation rates. The real-world rates are more than double what the best computer modeling showed: While the studies, on average, warned of a 7 percent extinction rate, field observations suggested the rate was closer to 15 percent.

Oreskes has spent a career studying climate science. She finds ample evidence that climate scientists are indeed biased - just not in the way portrayed by politicians such as Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who claimed scientists paint a bleak picture to secure more research funding.

In reality, Oreskes said, scientists skew their results away from worst-case, doomsday scenarios. "Many people in the scientific community have felt that it's important to be conservative - that it protects your credibility," she said. "There's a low-end bias. It has led scientists to understate, rather than overstate, the impacts."

Media's fault, too
Not all scientists agree that they and their colleagues have deliberately downplayed impacts, of course.

But other scholars have noted the misperception - and argued the fault lies not just with scientists, but also with journalists reporting those findings.

In a notable 2010 study, the late William Freudenberg, a University of California, Santa Barbara, researcher who studied science and the media, found that new scientific findings are more than 20 times likely to show that global climate disruption is "worse than previously expected" rather than "not as bad as previously expected."

He drew two conclusions from the assessment, one for scientists and one for journalists:

Scientists should be more skeptical toward supposed "good news" on global warming. And reporters, he warned, "need to learn that, if they wish to discuss 'both sides' of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate 'other side' is that, if anything, global climate disruption is likely to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date."

Inherent challenges
Of course, the science of climate modeling itself could be inherently biased. Predicting the future impact of emissions remains a difficult task, despite advances in the field over recent decades. Disparate elements can interact in surprising and additive ways that belie scientists' best assumptions.

That may be the case with the discrepancy between predicted and observed extinction rates, said Ilya Maclean, a researcher at the University of Exeter and lead author of the study, published in July in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Many studies he examined tie predicted extinction rates to just one factor - rising temperatures, say, or loss of habitat due to sea-level rise. But a changing climate can impact habitats and species in diverse and unexpected ways, he said.

"That's not to say there are always additive effects," Maclean said. "But that might be one of the reasons why predictions tend to be quite conservative."

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20 comments // Evidence builds that scientists underplay climate impacts

  • nardo1224
    • +1
      nardo1224  

    • When will people get their heads out of the sand and realize that we are destroying this planet. This is akin to a Dr telling someone that they have very high cholesterol and instead of changing their diet and exercising, they go on a rampage discrediting the Dr and end up dying of a heart attack during one of their rants.

    • 8 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • JanforGore
  • freehit
    • +1
      freehit  

    • And yet you still have the deniers saying it's all a lie that we're to blame as the world goes to hell around them. I've mixed feelings about my rapidly approaching death. On one hand, I don't want to go. On the other hand I'm glad I won't be around for the inevitable crash that's almost here.

    • 8 months ago
  • Toughth
    • 0
      Toughth  
    • freehit:

      Sir I understand what you mean. I developed MRSA in my Spine. Ihave lost the feeling in my legs permantly. I have just been told that my own survival is probably measured in Months not years. MRSA is a deaseas developed out of the use of antibiotics but the pharmacutical company's deny this fact saying it is a natural evolution of the bacteria. Then they go to church and thier Tea Party rally and scream there isn't any such thing as evolution. Same with climat chang, if it keeps a billionair a billionair then that is the way it is.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
    • +2
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15342682

      Climate Change "Grave Threat" To Security And Health.

      "Climate change poses "an immediate, growing and grave threat" to health and security around the world, according to an expert conference in London.

      Officers in the UK military warned that the price of goods such as fuel is likely to rise as conflict provoked by climate change increases.

      A statement from the meeting adds that humanitarian disasters will put more and more strain on military resources.

      It asks governments to adopt ambitious targets for curbing greenhouse gases.

      The annual UN climate conference opens in about six weeks' time, and the doctors, academics and military experts represented at the meeting (held in the British Medical Association's (BMA) headquarters) argue that developed and developing countries alike need to raise their game.

      Scientific studies suggest that the most severe climate impacts will fall on the relatively poor countries of the tropics.

      UK military experts pointed out that much of the world's trade moves through such regions, with North America, Western Europe and China among the societies heavily dependent on oil and other imports.

      Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, climate and energy security envoy for the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), said that conflict in such areas could make it more difficult and expensive to obtain goods on which countries such as Britain rely.

      "If there are risks to the trade routes and other areas, then it's food, it's energy," he told BBC News.

      "The price of energy will go up - for us, it's [the price of] petrol at the pumps - and goods made in southeast Asia, a lot of which we import."

      Coffee climate
      A number of recent studies have suggested that climate impacts will make conflict more likely, by increasing competition for scarce but essential resources such as water and food."

      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2010/10/08/more-water-flooding-postel/

      Expect More Floods As Global Water Cycle Speeds Up

      "There is nearly 20 percent more freshwater flowing into the world’s oceans than there was 10 years ago–a sign of climate change and a harbinger of more flooding.

      By Sandra L. Postel

      National Geographic Freshwater Fellow

      This post is part of National Geographic’s Freshwater Initiative.

      A new indicator has joined the century-long rise in temperature to signal that the planet’s climate is changing: the global water cycle is speeding up. Using satellite observations, NASA and university researchers have found that rivers and melting ice sheets delivered 18 percent more water to the oceans in 2006 than in 1994.

      The findings, which appear in this week’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggest that the volume of water running off the land toward the sea is expanding by the equivalent of roughly one Mississippi River each year.

      On the face of it that might sound like a good thing–more water in rivers means more water to tap for agriculture, industry, and growing cities. But most of the increase is occurring in places where extra water isn’t needed, like the wet tropics or the remote Arctic, or is being delivered through torrential storms that overwhelm human infrastructure and coping capacities. Though no single weather episode can be pinned to climate change, the massive rains that recently flooded a fifth of Pakistan is the kind of event scientists expect to see more of–and that nations should prepare for.

      Image of flooding in Sukkur, Pakistan, on August 18, 2010 by NASA.

      (See more pictures of the Pakistan flood.)

      Why is the water cycle speeding up? As the atmosphere warms from the addition of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, it can hold more moisture. As a result, more water evaporates from the oceans, leading to thicker clouds that then dump more rainfall over the land. That heavier-than-normal rain can then produce massive flooding as it runs back toward the sea, where the cycle begins all over again.

      Scientists have expected global warming to speed up the water cycle in this way, but the use of satellite data allowed the trend to be observed and measured for the first time. The research team, led by Jay Famiglietti of the University of California at Irvine, used satellite records of sea level rise, precipitation, and evaporation to compile a unique 13-year record, the first of its kind.

      As the scientific evidence mounts that more severe floods and droughts are on the horizon, getting on with ways of adapting to climatic change becomes just as urgent as slowing the pace of that change."

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_warming_of_antarctica_a_citadel_of_ice_begins_t...

      The Warming Of Antarctica
      A Citadel Of Ice BeginsTo Melt

      "The fringes of the coldest continent are starting to feel the heat, with the northern Antarctic Peninsula warming faster than virtually any place on Earth. These rapidly rising temperatures represent the first breach in the enormous frozen dome that holds 90 percent of the world’s ice.
      by fen montaigne

      In 1978, when few researchers were paying attention to global warming, a prominent geologist at Ohio State University was already focused on the prospect of fossil fuel emissions trapping heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. His name was John H. Mercer, and when he contemplated what might be in store for the planet, his thoughts naturally gravitated to the biggest chunk of ice on Earth — Antarctica.

      “If present trends in fossil fuel consumption continue...” he wrote in Nature, “a critical level of warmth will have been passed in high southern latitudes 50 years from now, and deglaciation of West Antarctica will be imminent or in progress... One of the warning signs that a dangerous warming trend is under way in Antarctica will be the breakup of ice shelves on both coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula, starting with the northernmost and extending gradually southward.”

      Mercer’s prediction has come true, and a couple of decades before he anticipated. Since he wrote those words, eight ice shelves have fully or partially collapsed along the Antarctic Peninsula, and the northwestern Antarctic Peninsula has warmed faster than virtually any place on Earth.

      The question now, as humanity pours greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at an accelerating rate, is not whether Antarctica will begin to warm in earnest, but how rapidly."
      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=11-P13-00024&segmentID=1

      The Fire And Climate Change Feedback Loop.

      "GELLERMAN: So, Professor, let me play out the scenarios. So if you have a wildfire it releases this nitrous oxide into the atmosphere, it affects climate change dramatically, it gets warmer and causes the conditions for more wildfires - you’ve got a feedback loop here.

      HUNGATE: That’s exactly right. It’s where climate change leads to more fires, which in turn lead to more climate change. And it’s not just nitrous oxide, these fires also produce carbon dioxide and methane, so they’re important sources of greenhouse gasses.

      GELLERMAN: Whoa! Well, we’re having intense wildfires around the United States - Arizona, Texas, Florida - we’re having wildfires that are unprecedented in terms of their size and in terms of their intensity and their duration.

      HUNGATE: That’s right. I’m really concerned about these fires.Wallow fire in my home state - Arizona - has burned over 450,000 acres - it’s the largest in our state’s history. But I’m also concerned because we can expect more of these large and intense fires in the future. Warming promotes fire-weather and the forests of the southwest are loaded with fuel - many and densely packed trees. That combination makes these systems especially susceptible to intense fires."
      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/201173114451998370.html

      The Decline Of Agriculture?

      "Climate change induced extreme weather events and shifting weather patterns are challenging farmer's ability to feed us.

      Dahr Jamail Last Modified: 04 Jul 2011 15:18

      Flooding ravaged farms in the midwest United States this June, causing many crops to be lost [GALLO/GETTY]

      Wendy Johnston with Oakwyn Farms in Athens, West Virginia, is deeply concerned about how shifting weather patterns are impacting farmers' ability to feed the global population.

      "This year we're off to a slow start," Johnston, who farms 40 hectares, told Al Jazeera. "Last year in April we were able to plant, but this year we even had rain, cold and snow a few days in April. The weather has become very unpredictable, and that's the real problem."

      Climate change is making farming more difficult for her, and she wonders how much worse things will become.

      On March 31, The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warned of "potentially catastrophic" impacts on food production from slow-onset climate changes that are expected to increasingly hit the developing world.

      The report filed with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, warned that food production systems and the ecosystems they depend on are highly sensitive to climate variability and change.

      Changes in temperature, precipitation, and related outbreaks of pest and diseases could reduce production, the report said. Those particularly vulnerable are poor people in countries that rely on food imports, although climate change events are already driving up food costs around the globe, including in developed countries.

      April broke many weather-related monthly records in the US, including 292 tornadoes and 5,400 extreme weather events, which combined to cause 337 deaths.

      The US National Climatic Data Center announced in June that April's weather extremes were "unprecedented" and "never before" seen in a single month. The center also noted drought across the southern plains, wildfires in the southwest, and record floods along the Mississippi River.
      China has been wracked by both severe drought and severe flooding this year, both resulting from climate change induced shifting weather patterns [GALLO/GETTY]

      "Severe weather events around the world will increase, even parts of the globe that don't normally see extreme weather events," said Steff Gaulter, Al Jazeera's senior weather presenter. "Those parts of the world that already struggle with water shortages will find matters worsening, including Australia, Mexico, the southwest United States, and parts of Africa."
      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • http://current.com/community/93498177_our-oceans-are-in-dire-shape-and-without-t...

      Our Oceans Are In Dire Shape- And Without Them All LIfe Is Screwed

      "Oceanographers estimate that before the use of fossil fuels, the ocean's PH balance, which measures its acidity, had been relatively stable for the past 20 million years. During the last great extinction of marine life, which occurred 55 million years ago, 50 percent of some groups of deep sea animals were wiped out.

      But the current levels of carbon being absorbed by the oceans is far higher than the levels being absorbed then.

      A United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) report released in 2010 on the "Environmental Consquences of Ocean Acidification" and based on studies conducted over the past two decades off the coast of Hawai'i has confirmed that the increased CO2 concentration levels in the ocean mirror the increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

      Ocean Acidification and Phytoplankton

      Already the increased levels of ocean acidification have led to a loss of phytoplankton and of coral reefs. And losses of phytoplankton and of coral reefs have a ripple effect."
      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  

    • And this doesn't even include what has been happening regarding typhoons, cyclones, drought and glacial melt around the world and the threats to species globally and our health, as well as the billions in agricultural losses. How frustrating that regardless of which party runs this government for the ones who really buy policy this is just not seen as the urgent crisis it should be, even now. This is also directly related to the epidemic of greed that has stolen so much from us. And even though it is right to protest against those who have done so much to cause such economic disparity and debt in our world and country that will be left to our children, money is only manmade paper. Stealing our and their biodiversity and ability to live on this planet has no dollar amount and is of inestimable value. Nature also doesn't give bailouts nor does she care what your political party is. However, I can guess it will become too late to address this as it is shoved to the backburner behind all the political noise and brinkmanship because POLITICS and MONEY are more important than LIFE itself.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  

    • http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2011/world/2011-is-record-setting-year-for...

      2011 Is Record Setting Year For Climate Change

      "This year has been a record-breaker among record-breakers — not only has 2011 been the hottest year on record in U.S. history, but many individual heat, flooding, and drought records have been broken, from sea to shining sea. The average U.S. summer temperature was 74.5 F, 2.4 degrees above the long-term average, according to a press release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Additionally, between June and August of this year, more than 26,500 record high temperatures were set, Climate Central reported, citing data from the National Climatic Data Center.

      The high-temperature records outnumbered the low-temperature records by an eight-to-one ratio — compared to the average two-to-one ratio — and this trend is expected to continue. This could be bad news for places like Texas, which had the hottest summer on record for any state and which continues to suffer from droughts and wildfires.

      Record Droughts and Record Rainfall
      Texas is not the lone-star state in terms of drought, though 2011 has made the record books as the state’s most intense dry spell since 1789, according to NOAA. Oklahoma, Louisiana, and New Mexico are also still in the midst of droughts.

      On the converse, the Northeastern U.S. recorded its second-wettest August ever, with New York and Philadelphia both breaking their all-time monthly rainfall records. Much of this was due to Hurricane Irene, which caused the worst flooding in decades in parts of New York, New Jersey, and Vermont."
      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  

    • http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335040/title/Really_bad_year_for_Arct...

      Really Bad Year For Arctic Sea Ice

      "New European data indicate this summer’s loss of ice cover matches the 2007 recordBy Janet Raloff Web edition : Thursday, October 6th, 2011 Text Size Enlarge
      Ice MonitorThe ice breaker Polarstern — seen here in August — just returned from 16 weeks plying Arctic waters to measure the extent and depth of summer sea ice.AWI

      On October 4, the National Snow and Ice Data Center posted information on its website indicating that the summer melt of sea ice in the Arctic, this year, approached — but did not quite match — a record set four years ago. A team of European scientists now concludes NSIDC got it wrong. This year's loss was every bit as big.

      “I know what NSIDC said,” says Marcel Nicolaus of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany. “Nevertheless, we have just found that this year's ice [loss] was very comparable to the extent reported in 2007.”
      cont.

    • 8 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  

    • "We're seeing mounting evidence now that the scientific community, rather than overstating the claim or being alarmist, is the opposite," said Naomi Oreskes, a science historian with the University of California, San Diego. "Scientists have been quite conservative ... in a lot of important and different areas."
      ______

      Fear of reprisals, intimidation, or perhaps some have been bought as well by the fossil fuel industry. Look at what companies like Monsanto and DOW do to downplay the dangers of their activities to health and the environment by buying scientists and universities and greenwashing. I find this to be a very dangerous precedent for the future. We need to know the truth about this and the reality of what we now face in order to address it properly...if that is even possible now.

      Gimme some truth!

      And to add, thank you to Dr. Naomi Oreskes and others for doing just that.

    • 8 months ago
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