Tech | December 01, 2011 | 44 comments

Texas Goes To Hell

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coolplanet
“With no previous points so dry it’s hard to say exactly what history would say about a summer such as this one. Except that this summer is way beyond the previous envelope of summer temperature and precipitation.” — Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon

Warming-Enhanced Texas Drought Is Once in "500 or 1,000 Years ... Basically Off the Charts," Says State Climatologist

By Stephen Lacey | Nov 30, 2011

From October of 2010 through this September 2011, Texas saw its driest year on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But these historic dry conditions stretch back even further than that.

After examining tree-ring data going back to 1550, researchers at Columbia University found that this year’s drought was only rivaled once in the last 461 years. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, a system for measuring wet and dry conditions, the last time Texas experienced a drought this bad was in 1789.

The state’s climatologist, John Nielsen-Gammon, explained the historical significance of the ongoing drought in an interview with CBS:

“This is basically off the charts. Based on past history, you wouldn’t expect to see this happening in maybe 500 or 1,000 years. One more year and we’re already talking about a drought more severe than anything we’ve ever had. And this will become for them, the drought of record.”

The drought, which Nielsen-Gammon says could stretch over a number of years, has devastated cotton crops, livestock, pumpkin crops, and, as the below CBS story points out, Christmas trees. The dry conditions have been exacerbated by a combination of human-caused global warming and La Niña, which pushes unusually cold air from the Pacific Ocean and causes drier-than-average conditions in the Southern U.S.

A number of leading climate experts recently explained the role that they believe human-caused global warming is playing in this epic drought.


As Texas climatologist Katherine Kayhoe put it in an email to Climate Progress, dumping ever-increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is setting the conditions for turning extreme-weather events into history-setting catastrophes:

“We often try to pigeonhole an event, such as a drought, storm, or heatwave into one category: either human or natural, but not both. What we have to realise is that our natural variability is now occurring on top of, and interacting with, background conditions that have already been altered by long-term climate change.

“As our atmosphere becomes warmer, it can hold more water vapor. Atmospheric circulation patterns shift, bringing more rain to some places and less to others. For example, when a storm comes, in many cases there is more water available in the atmosphere and rainfall is heavier. When a drought comes, often temperatures are already higher than they would have been 50 years ago and so the effects of the drought are magnified by higher evaporation rates.”

The Why Files has comments on the drought from many leading experts:

Gammon: “There is evidence that global warming has had an effect on the drought, primarily by increasing the surface temperature, which increases the drought severity by increasing evaporation and water stress, and by decreasing stream flow and water supply….
… “temperatures have been rising in Tex over past 30 years or so, and they are projected to continue rising at similar rates. We think that the hole is filling, and I am afraid of a rebound effect, where natural variability varies in the opposite direction and the temperature rise would be relatively rapid.”

Richard Alley, professor of geosciences, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University

“It sure looks like warming, wrote Richard Alley, an expert on climate and ice at Pennsylvania State University, via email. “Our usual scientific response is to say that human burning of fossil fuels has made the events more likely, and they happened,” but conclusive proof is not available. “You as journalists, and the public in general, HATE that. But it’s probably the best answer.

“In a warmer world, we expect more record highs and fewer record lows, more heat waves and fewer cold snaps. That pattern is being observed. Warmer air can ‘hold’ more water (saturation vapor pressure increases with temperature), so if air is warmer when a rainstorm happens, then the rain can be more intense.

“In addition, there is a fairly strong reason to expect that in a warming world the subtropical dry zones (which include the Sahara and the Kalahari, and influence the U.S. Southwest, including parts of Texas) will intensify and expand poleward at least somewhat.

“Suppose you’re playing dice with me, and after you lose, you discover that I stuck some carefully positioned weights inside them. Out in the climate, the dice are now loaded, but not nearly as much as they will be in the future if we keep burning fossil fuels and releasing the CO2 to the air. It is hard to prove that any particular event was extreme because of global warming … but for many events (record heat, drought and flood) it is harder to prove that humans did not influence the outcome, just as it is very hard to prove that my loaded dice didn’t affect the game.”

Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Is the Texas drought and heat wave due to climate change or natural variation?

“There is no doubt a modest component related to climate change, while natural variability plays a major role,” says Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “Fifteen years ago we suggested that with ENSO [El Nino-Southern Oscillation; periodic variations in water temperatures in the Pacific] the floods and droughts would become more intense.”

“… Although the drought is linked to La Nina, it is also exacerbated by climate warming, Trenberth adds. Human climate change adds “about a 1 percent to 2 percent effect every day in terms of more energy. So after a month or two this mounts up and helps dry things out. At that point all the heat goes into raising temperatures. So it mounts up to a point that once again records get broken. The extent of the extremes would not have occurred without human climate change.”

In short, Texas ain’t seen nothing yet, assuming we keep listening to their politicians….

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/30/378412/texas-drought-historic-off-the-c...
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  2. tags:
    Climate Change,  Global Warming,  Texas Drought
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44 comments // Texas Goes To Hell

  • Gravity_Man
    • +1
      Gravity_Man  

    • And Texas traffic per day emits a billion BTU's of Heat into the air => WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT PICTURE?

      Shut down all Texas traffic for 3 days, see what happens. Announce it well in advance, tell all the trucking companies IN ADVANCE, no surprises. A three-day shutdown.

      And watch the temperatures drop: A SCIENCE EXPERIMENT!!! Three days of no automobile & truck traffic will reveal the TRUTH about Texas Heat. Oops, I forgot => TEXANS CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH.

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
    • +1
      coolplanet  
    • Gravity_Man:

      The scariest thing is that if humanity suddenly stopped spewing emissions into the sky tomorrow the Earth would instantly heat up by several degrees due to a lack of aerosols like sulfer from coal which contribute to global cooling.
      I am not kidding.
      We are in a very precarious situation and haven't the slightest clue of what we are dealing with.

    • 6 months ago
  • freehit
    • +2
      freehit  

    • A year back I recall National Geographic had a study of lake bed cores that showed that the lake the cores were taken at had dried up at the time of the collapse of the Maya civilization. The point of this? If Ricky wants to make Texas an independent country, his new nation has just died.

    • 6 months ago
  • Mark701
    • +2
      Mark701  

    • The drought isn't due to global warming. Texas just got a little closer to hell.

      In a sense this is poetic justice for a state that produces so many global warming naysayers. Suck it up Texas and don't come running to ME the taxpayer for help because nothing will grow there anymore. It's part of the price you pay for being arrogant and exceptionally ignorant.

    • 6 months ago
  • Milieu
    • +2
      Milieu  

    • Please don't take this the wrong way, but, since my first extended exposure to Texas in the late 60s-------- it has always been hell.

    • 6 months ago
  • wyndesonge
  • Persecuted
    • -1
      Persecuted  
    • wyndesonge:

      not everyone in texas denies climate change... some of the brightest and best scientists in the field come from texas actually... putting a label on millions of people is small minded

    • 6 months ago
  • wyndesonge
    • +3
      wyndesonge  
    • Persecuted:

      Lets see - those the "scientists" that altered state reports to cover up rising sea levels? As long as those millions keep electing bafoons like Perry, Bush and the rest of their ilk - I'll be sticking with my stereotype.

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
    • +2
      coolplanet  
    • wyndesonge:

      Just to be fair it wasn't the scientists who altered state reports about rising sea levels.
      It was pRick Perry's rethuglican administration.
      You know, the guy who spent tens of thousands of Texan taxpayers dollars to hold an all day prayer event for rain last July?

    • 6 months ago
  • Humdrum
    • -1
      Humdrum  
    • wyndesonge:

      Way to fail at higher thinking. It's very easy to stereotype, but all it does is further cement divisions, little by little. You and the people you describe represent one of the major problems of this country. Grow up.

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • Gravity_Man
    • +3
      Gravity_Man  

    • In 1789 Texas wasn't filled with PEOPLE needing water only animals needing water. And each animal wasn't hitting 160 horsepower down a BLACK ASPHALT SUN-ABSORBING HIGHWAY sending 400+ degree exhaust fumes into the air like a stampede of bulls.

      So, the World got better but we made it worse!!! Whew.

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
    • -2
      coolplanet  
    • Gravity_Man:

      The 'Heat Island Effect' was thoroughly debunked by the latest Berkley study (ironically funded by the Koch brothers).
      The Texas drought of 1789 was nothing compared to this, no matter how many people were there to experience it.

    • 6 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • +2
      Gravity_Man  
    • coolplanet:

      Asphalt gets hot enough to melt the soles off of shoes and Texas is further south than I am here. The picture looks like an island.... So the Bad Guys say the island isn't true eh? Sure does look like an island ta me.

      I noticed a lot of truck tire caps peeled off in Texas.

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
    • 0
      coolplanet  
    • Gravity_Man:

      I can't disagree with you there.
      But what the Berkley study found is that this is the effect of global warming and not why the temperature is rising all over Earth.
      To me Texas is looking more like an empty lake of fire.

    • 6 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • coolplanet:

      It looks like that wok that caught fire here in January 2008. Double bottom supposed to have been pulled off the shelves. It was prone to exploding, trapped air in the bottom. Like a double boiler with a welded shut lid.

      They used to tell us in Science Class how molecules would attract each other, so the H2O in the atmosphere is building up but also attracting each other, causing a swamping/sloshing effect with the areas in between going without water. Texas is just plain in the wrong place.

      It could be too a delayed reaction of Core-exit and crude oil in the Gulf disaster. Perhaps slicker water caused a wicking effect, made the evaporated ocean water run off to Indonesia....

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • Gravity_Man
    • -1
      Gravity_Man  
    • coolplanet:

      No, the pan fire was at the height of the freon poisoning being done me by multiple pinhole leaks in the cooling coils. My timing was really slogged down, so when I walked away "just for a minute" it might have been 3-5 minutes.

      It was really big flames!!! Reached the ceiling as I carried it out to the balcony. My son reached it off the stove, I took it the rest of the way from the sink.

      I just realized this morning that the three smoke alarms in this apartment are too far away from the kitchen. Only took me close to 4 years to figure that out! The smoke off the pan spread across the ceiling for a full 240 square feet before reaching the smoke alarm in the hallway.

      Stupid people. Non-Smokers in a Smoker-designed apartment.

    • 6 months ago
  • EmperorThan
  • Swisher
  • coolplanet
  • VoyagerFilms
    • +3
      VoyagerFilms  

    • Is it punishment for George W. Bush and family and friends? Is it punishment for pRick Perry continuing to execute innocent people found guilty by way of a dysfunctional and sometimes corrupt judicial system? Hmm

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • Persecuted
    • +3
      Persecuted  
    • VoyagerFilms:

      yes because thousands of people losing their homes to fires and all the animals who died due to thirst and heat had it coming... just like those fuckers in japan had it coming... also just like those idiots in louisiana had katrina coming... because their leaders suck... someone is sounding a little like pat robertson here... god's punishment huh

    • 6 months ago
  • wyndesonge
  • coolplanet
    • 0
      coolplanet  
    • Persecuted:

      I see your point but there is a big difference.
      For the past 30 years climatologists have been warning us to expect this and that the American southwest would be hit hard.
      On the contrary CBN just randomly blames weather events on God.
      You have to admit that Texas has long been the biggest climate change denier state.
      I am not blaming you sodomites down there :-) but you must admit it is poetic justice!
      I will pray for Texas.

    • 6 months ago
  • percipi224
  • percipi224
  • Gravity_Man
  • coolplanet
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • coolplanet:

      Texans will be ecstatic to know that. Start at Main St. Dallas and work your way up!

      All I know is with my thick, clumpy extra stickey blood if I was in Texas it would be the last place I went. I still have damage from the congestive heart failure. Texas is way off my list of places to visit. Plus Florida and all points in between WHERE I MIGHT ADD they should have been using my fields of lightning towers 20 years ago had the DEPT. OF ENERGY NOT REFUSED TO EXAMINE IT.

      Texas, Louisiana, Mississsippi, Alabama & Florida should be rolling in the dough long ago, and plenty money to pay for water brought in. So far as I'm concerned if Texas is in Hell it was a plate served them by the United States Government of America.

      I did my part, they did theirs & Texas got sent down the sleuce into Hades.

    • 6 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • Gravity_Man:

      When somebody submits a system for providing the country with ALL THE POWER IT NEEDS FROM LIGHTNING and the stupid people don't USE IT I fail to see where this USofA qualifies to even call itself a country, much less the "best one".

      A "best one" would take care of its citizens with FREE LIGHTNING ENERGY.

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
    • +1
      coolplanet  
    • Gravity_Man:

      Back in 1987 I published several articles in California's Mendocino Commentary about applying Nikola Tesla's Colorado Springs experiment to protect forests from fires by installing lightning rods in the tallest trees and harvesting the millions of volts-per-bolt for electricity.
      A scientist from the National Forestry Service contacted me in 1996 saying that the government is studying this in Florida, using nets of wire instead of rods to harness the lightning.
      I haven't heard anything since.

    • 6 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • +1
      Gravity_Man  
    • coolplanet:

      The American Petri Dish is growing stupid people faster than you and I are submitting ideas. Suggest break off attack.

      p.s. My idea was to draw the entire lightning-laden storms away from cities and interstates. Too bad for cities and interstates => they have died the death of all victims of THE STUPIDS.

    • 6 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • +1
      Gravity_Man  
    • coolplanet:

      Uhm, nets wouldn't work anyway they would attract too many bolts at one time and melt down. Lightning poles made of metal would pull down one at a time, ideal for a parallel capacitive wire (and circuit). Capacitive, that's the ticket. That's what Floyd Sweet apparently also used to harvest Cosmic Energy, in 1987! Imagine that.

      He made a radio that instead of filtering out the static it attracted static. Static is Cosmic Energy. He made what is called a "Honey Pot". It attracted the planet-bound static to go through it first and make an identical power parallel WITHOUT STOPPING THE ENERGY.

      Mine would do the same thing. Lightning would not be stopped. When lightning travels through the pole's metal as the energy slams into the metal molecules a perpendicular Force is thrown out sideways off the pole.

      This perpendicular Force as it reaches out into the parallel wire it shoves the metal molecules in the wire, which is AN ELECTRICAL CURRENT YOU SEE.

      That's called induction => the Force is "induced" into the other wire by Magnetism without slowing down the lightning bolts. HEHEHEHEHEHE

    • 6 months ago
  • Gravity_Man
  • coolplanet
    • -1
      coolplanet  
    • Gravity_Man:

      Ben Franklin thought he was 'attracting' or 'pulling down' lightning with his famous kite & key experiment. He could have easily been killed!
      It turns out lightning usually strikes the highest point.
      So a high net does make some sense.
      The problem is how do you store billions of DC volts from a thunderstorm? It would fry the electric grid at present.
      My idea is millions of capacitors, unlike batteries.....

    • 6 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • WakeUpPeople
  • letsliveinpeace
  • coolplanet
  • coolplanet
  • coolplanet
  • percipi224
    • +1
      percipi224  
    • coolplanet:

      well, for the longest time, no one went there, or oklahoma. to damn dry. scruffy brush and long horns, that was it. Oh yeah, Indians, the Wichitas and Jicarilla Apache. And they were nomadic. But of course that is the land we said they could have. What got me was the whole damn place to put a capital and Houston puts the capital in the swamp. Well, it aint a swamp now.

    • 6 months ago
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