Tech | February 04, 2012 | 88 comments

Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe?

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JanforGore
A loss of sea ice could be a cause of the bitter winds that have swept across the UK in the past week, weather experts say


The bitterly cold weather sweeping Britain and the rest of Europe has been linked by scientists with the ice-free seas of the Arctic, where global warming is exerting its greatest influence.

A dramatic loss of sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas above northern Russia could explain why a chill Arctic wind has engulfed much of Europe and killed 221 people over the past week.

The death toll from Arctic blast has been particularly severe in the Ukraine, where many of the dead have been people sleeping on the streets. Heating and food tents have been set up to ease their hardship. In Romania 24 people are known to have died and 17 in Poland.

A growing number of experts believe complex wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere above.

In particular, the loss of Arctic sea ice could be influencing the development of high-pressure weather systems over northern Russia, which bring very cold winds from the Arctic and Siberia to Western Europe and the British Isles, the scientists believe. An intense anticyclone over north-west Russia is behind the bitterly cold easterly winds that have swept across Europe and some climate scientists say the lack of Arctic sea ice brought about by global warming is responsible.

"The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming," said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe."

Sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas has been exceptionally low this winter, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. But air temperatures above the Barents and Kara Seas have been higher than average. The relatively mild westerly winds that have kept Britain from freezing much of this winter have been blocked by fierce high pressure over north-west Russia, centred on an area just south of the Barents Sea.

Studies by scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research have confirmed a link between the loss of Arctic sea ice and the development of high-pressure zones in the polar region, which influence wind patterns at lower latitudes further south. Scientists found that as the cap of sea ice is removed from the ocean, huge amounts of heat are released from the sea into the colder air above, causing the air to rise. Rising air destabilises the atmosphere and alters the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and more southerly regions, changing wind patterns.

Professor Rahmstorf said the Alfred Wegener study confirms earlier predictions from computer models by Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute, who forecast colder winters in western Europe as a result of melting sea ice.

Dr Petoukhov and his colleague Vladimir Semenov were among the first scientists to suggest a link between the loss of sea ice and colder winters in Europe. Their 2009 study simulated the effects of disappearing sea ice and found that for some years to come the loss will increase the chances of colder winters.

"Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far-away sea ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," Dr Petoukhov said.

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88 comments // Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe?

  • coolplanet
  • Gravity_Man
  • coolplanet
    • 0
      coolplanet  
    • Gravity_Man:

      Magnetic north has indeed moved into Siberia during the past decade.
      A polar flip does not mean the Earth will turn upside down as so many believe.
      But this doesn't explain Arctic weather in Europe. That is caused by reduced sea ice which causes a reversal in the Arctic oscillation we've been seeing for the past few winters.

    • 4 months ago
  • tverdell
    • +2
      tverdell  
    • I don't think Joe six-pack and Sally housecoat will make this connection. As a matter of fact, the colder the winter, the more they are convinced of the GW hoax.

      I do not know how we get around this problem.

    • 4 months ago
  • coolplanet
  • circlesquared
  • coolplanet
  • JanforGore
    • +3
      JanforGore  
    • tverdell:

      Support Al Gore and others explaining that connection and help them do it. Isn't that what Current is for? Isn't that what the Internet is for? I made three videos about climate extremes in 2011 with information in them and placed them everywhere I could. Hopefully people saw them and understand this connection better. Raising awareness and explaining the connection is essential now. We can all be a part of that.

    • 4 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +5
      JanforGore  
    • http://current.com/green/93555250_study-arctic-ice-melting-unprecedented-in-past...

      Sea ice extent is thinner with perennial ice melting. This is only amplifying the positive feedback loop due to warming waters, even under the thinning surface ice. Oh, and watch for the line deniers use to try misinform about this.They will say "extent" is greater to make you think there is more ice while leaving out the fact that "volume" is also an important factor because it has also declined due to the warming waters beneath the surface. Surface "extent" may be greater at some points, but is thinner.

      This is a buoy in the Beaufort Sea showing time lapse melting for 2011.

    • 4 months ago
  • northernexpat
    • +3
      northernexpat  
    • JanforGore:

      Thanks Jan. I have a friend who heads excavations looking for Sir John Franklin's grave site in the high arctic. He went this summer and said that there was more open water than he had ever seen before. He also said that even though more artifacts are being uncovered it is getting harder and harder to navigate around the areas that use to be frozen. Pretty soon we will lose a lot of the history from that time as more and more open water buries it forever.

    • 4 months ago
  • circlesquared
  • northernexpat
  • circlesquared
  • The_Wanderer_Kansas
    • +2
      The_Wanderer_Kansas  
    • northernexpat:

      Polar bears are simply an evolved (adapted) breed of grizzly, and I firmly believe in the resiliance of life. I think the polar bears may take a hit in populations mostly as the new climate patterns affect thier hunting, not as much thier surroundings. They are strong, agile, intelligent, and considered to be among the very best of survivalist on the planet, they will survive, we just may not recognize them in a few generations.

    • 4 months ago
  • northernexpat
    • +3
      northernexpat  
    • circlesquared:

      Yes and that effects the food source up here too. Intuit eat raw seal meat. Can you imagine the impact it will have on their lives if they become exposed to radiation or have to stop eating the seal because it is unsafe? The Northwest Territories and Nunavut have such small populations compared to our land mass, which is loaded with natural resources, so we have little say on what happens up here. We don't even get to keep the royalties from all the mining and drilling. It goes directly to the Canadian federal government. So you can see there is little incentive for the federal government to change it ways.

    • 4 months ago
  • jimstoner
  • circlesquared
  • jimstoner
  • circlesquared
  • circlesquared
    • +2
      circlesquared  
    • keep in mind the pole is moving closer to Russia and there are huge amounts of CO2 being released as the North thaws which certainly compounds the problem

    • 4 months ago
  • thedirtman
  • coolplanet
  • fernweher
    • +3
      fernweher  
    • As long as the polar ice caps are shrinking each year, the rest of this argument is indisputable. Without the normal amount of polar ice, climate is shifting and will continue to change wildly until it reaches a new equilibrium. If the ice caps keep shrinking, climate will continue to be disrupted and yearly weather patterns will continue to be chaotic every year.
      I have heard the polar ice caps are indeed shrinking, but can anyone provide a good reference to this? I think that would be the end all to any denier's argument.

    • 4 months ago
  • jimstoner
  • jimstoner
  • jimstoner
  • thedirtman
  • thedirtman
  • coolplanet
  • northernexpat
    • +6
      northernexpat  
    • And here in the Arctic it feels like spring. It rose to 8c (46F) last night, drop to 3c (37F) this afternoon, still well above freezing. But, this is February not April! Our road are a mess. It is expected to freeze again in a few days. I'm sick and scared of this. Every year it is getting warmer and warmer during the winter. It's killing our environment.

    • 4 months ago
  • jimstoner
    • +4
      jimstoner  
    • northernexpat:

      We haven't seen any real sign of winter here in Southern Ontario either. The locals have already begun to call it the winter that never came. I asked an elderly gentleman, probably in his late 70s if he had ever seen anything like this before. He said "I have seen warm days in Jan., Feb. and March, but I have never seen anything like this". The concern on his face was obvious.

    • 4 months ago
  • northernexpat
    • +4
      northernexpat  
    • jimstoner:

      Just speak to the elders up here. Those that still live off the land are finding it harder to find safe hunting grounds. It is even worse in Nunavut. Last winter, Iqaluit had a winter thaw. This year they had a major water break that flooded the City. What a mess they had. If you don't think all the expanding and contracting of the permafrost does not have any effect on our water and sewer pipes, your nuts. But don't let that stop deniers.

    • 4 months ago
  • jimstoner
  • northernexpat
    • +4
      northernexpat  
    • jimstoner:

      Thanks Jim. I see it happening first hand up here, but the aerial shot from NASA and this article you posted put it into perspective. Now I fear that the world will be in deep shit in my lifetime. The warming up here has certainly speeded up the last few years and I don't see it slowing down. Especially since Harper just approved production of another tar sands north of Fort McMurray. We will soon have another pipeline to argue about. Mankind is natures worst enemy I'm afraid.

    • 4 months ago
  • jimstoner
  • jimstoner
  • IceKat
  • jimstoner
  • The_Wanderer_Kansas
  • jimstoner
    • +4
      jimstoner  
    • IceKat:

      Wow IceKat, now your denying denial. That could be a whole new psychological conversation. You do realize that at some point you are going to have to start calling yourself SlushKat right?

    • 4 months ago
  • The_Wanderer_Kansas
    • +2
      The_Wanderer_Kansas  
    • Oh look, another thread of denial rhetoric and propoganda!! Oh boy I am so excited now... NOT! Good luck to cool, Jan, DGB and anyothers who are willing to go thru the headache of countering this fools BS.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -4
      IceKat  
    • The_Wanderer_Kansas:

      Annoying, isn't it, when I can show real-world evidence that no-one here can dispute... and you, of all people, label me a fool?
      Fools fall for anything, maybe that's why you're so easily led into believing any old crap posted by extremist activists.

    • 4 months ago
  • The_Wanderer_Kansas
    • +3
      The_Wanderer_Kansas  
    • Image
    • IceKat:

      You are so full of crap! I am waiting to see something posted by you that aligns at all with well known and well established climate science. Until then, I really don't want you addressing me... I feel dirty everytime I read your words.

    • 4 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • The_Wanderer_Kansas
  • coolplanet
    • +4
      coolplanet  
    • "Scientists found that as the cap of sea ice is removed from the ocean, huge amounts of heat are released from the sea into the colder air above, causing the air to rise. Rising air destabilises the atmosphere and alters the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and more southerly regions, changing wind patterns."

      This makes a lot of sense. It is one of those positive feedbacks that climate scientists didn't consider in their earlier models, as well as the enormous methane discharge from melting tundra. How anyone can not see the urgency of this situation is because they refuse to see.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • coolplanet:

      "Rising air destabilises the atmosphere and alters the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and more southerly regions, changing wind patterns."

      Yes, that's how weather works. Or are you trying to tell me that the atmospheric pressure between Arctic weather systems has always been stable until now? What causes weather in the Arctic and northern Europe? Is weather allowed to happen everywhere else except for the Arctic and northern Europe?
      Have you got absolutely no idea about pressure systems or how the atmosphere works?
      And for your information, the ice cap has not been removed, it is still very much in evidence.

    • 4 months ago
  • DemGloriousBums
  • IceKat
  • DemGloriousBums
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • DemGloriousBums:

      Why don't you present some science to disprove the real-world evidence I presented instead of acting like a stupid little child, shouting and screaming until you get what you want.
      I don't mind debating sensible people but you really just show yourself to have a rather immature attitude - to say the least.
      I can't be bothered to reply anymore until you have something worth replying to.

    • 4 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +5
      JanforGore  
    • Image
    • coolplanet:

      http://www.sciencenewsline.com/nature/2011052616080000.html

      Yes. Sea ice loss also effects ocean currents as well.

      "The Arctic has been surrounded by extensive glaciations several times in the past and this study has shown that large-scale changes in such Arctic ice sheets could affect the climate in places far from the release site. Our work also suggests that the Pacific Ocean may have been more sensitive to major changes in past glaciations than previously realised. We plan to investigate this possibility more in the future."

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -3
      IceKat  
    • Image
    • Obviously the Arctic must have lost a lot of ice in 1947 to have produced a winter like this, the likes of which have never been experienced since that date. So what happened? If the lack of Arctic ice is giving us this bad winter, was there less Arctic ice in 1947? And if there was, why did it happen while CO2 was at a "safe" level? Maybe it isn't all to do with the amount of Arctic ice at all?
      And if Arctic ice is in a downward "death spiral" why aren't winters becoming steadily worse?

      Now, who keeps on bleating about Arctic ice around 2006/7 being at an all-time low? Well maybe she's right so long as the world began when the first satellites were launched. But if we take the low ice extent of 2007 and look at that winter, surely we should find a pretty severe winter?

      "December 2007 saw close to average daily mean temperatures over the UK, with January and February 2008 recording well above average temperatures." - Met Office.

      "Last autumn-winter season was Europe's warmest for more than 700 years, researchers say.
      The last time Europeans saw similar temperatures to the autumn and winter of 2006-07, they were eating strawberries at Christmas in 1289, according to Jürg Luterbacher at the University of Bern, Switzerland, and colleagues." - New Scientist - June 2007

      Low Arctic sea ice in 2007 and 2008 corresponded to mild European winters.

      So, warm winters with less Arctic ice, and yet this severe winter is being blamed on... less Arctic ice. Just goes to show that extremists will say anything and blame the weather on anything they like.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -3
      IceKat  
    • 1962 - 63 said to be the worst winter since 1740. Why was it so bad in 1740 when the Arctic ice must have been in much better shape than it is today according to some people? Why was it so severe in 62-63?

      Military assistance: an operational perspective - Page 133
      "The Marshall Plan and China In 1947, after the worst European winter in a century, with a widening chasm between the United States and Britain, the wartime alliance with the Soviet Union had all but dissolved."

      1947 - the worst European winter in a century! What shape was Arctic ice in in 1947?
      The great famine: northern Europe in the early fourteenth century - Page 17
      "Moreover, for sheer length of time the succession of miserably cold winters in the years 1310–1330 was incomparable; and 1320–1330 was perhaps the second worst period for severe winters in the entirety of the Middle Ages."

      Well look at that, severe winters even long before that nasty dangerous trace gas, CO2 could possibly have been responsible.

      Of course none of that matters because the extremists like to think the world began when they were born, and if things aren't the same now as they were then, well, it can only be that the climate is broken, and if that's the case, it can only be man and CO2 that broke it... it couldn't be anything else... couldn't be...

    • 4 months ago
  • DemGloriousBums
  • IceKat
    • -3
      IceKat  
    • DemGloriousBums:

      Nice to see the consensus is growing! Most extremists here only state that 97% of climate scientists disagree with sane and normal people. Fortunately, the 97% claim turns out to be a total fallacy anyway. The climate scam is run by barely a hand-full of people, mostly discredited 'scientists' who withhold data and won't release their methodology.

    • 4 months ago
  • DemGloriousBums
  • IceKat
  • DemGloriousBums
  • coolplanet
  • northernexpat
    • +5
      northernexpat  
    • DemGloriousBums:

      I applaud your perseverance in trying to convince IceKat with actual evidence. Tell him to come up to the Arctic and see what havoc the melting of the Ice Caps are having on our environment. It was plus 8c last night when our normal weather for this time of year should be in the -20s. Climate change is happening no matter how hard they want to deny it.

    • 4 months ago
  • oboith
    • 0
      oboith  
    • IceKat:

      Discredited by whom? I encountered some interesting scientific conjecture recently concerning the BP's oil spill and it's effect on the gulf stream's change of course and temperature. This would most certainly affect the weather in Northern and Central Europe,,,IE a winter of extreme and catastrophic proportions. Science be damned along with reality.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -3
      IceKat  
    • Quote of the week:

      "The lack of warming for more than a decade—indeed, the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections—suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause. Faced with this embarrassment, those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes, to enable anything unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2. "

      And as global temperatures again sink below the long-term average, some extremists remain stuck on the old cry, "it's global warming, all that CO2 is trapping heat...it is.. it is.. it issssssssss....."
      You really have to laugh - a lot!

    • 4 months ago
  • Kelly_Balthrop
    • +5
      Kelly_Balthrop  
    • IceKat:

      There is no shifting drum beat. I've been reading for years that to call it global warming was misleading. It should have called global weirding. As the Earth average temperature increases it destabilizes weather patterns. Some places get wetter, others dryer. Some places get warmer, others colder. The mere fact that we are loosing the polar ice caps should be evidence enough that something is going on.

    • 4 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +7
      JanforGore  
    • Kelly_Balthrop:

      Deniers know that but they have nothing else but to try to engage you ( in general ) in a conversation so they have an excuse to post another bs half graph. They only want attention. They have no facts.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • Kelly_Balthrop:

      Well done, that just about encompasses everything. It doesn't matter what happens, whether it gets warmer or cooler, whether there's more rain or a drought, less snow or rain... you name it, it's now "global weirding".
      And if you care to look carefully, you'll notice we aren't losing the ice caps. However, I'll grant you that the Arctic did undergo a fluctuation in ice extent, but that's nothing new unless you think the world began in 1970?

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • JanforGore:

      Is this the first ever severe winter in Europe? Of course not, a lot of winters have been worse than this.

      Deniers of reality know that but they have nothing else but to try to engage you (in general ) in a conversation so they have an excuse to post another bs half graph or some sort of propaganda video. They only want attention. They have no facts.

    • 4 months ago
  • DemGloriousBums
  • IceKat
  • JanforGore
  • coolplanet
  • JanforGore
    • +6
      JanforGore  
    • coolplanet:

      They have no refutation. They have no credibility. But what they do have is culpability and blood on their hands. Hopefully one day we will see them on trial for crimes against humanity.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • coolplanet:

      For once I actually decided to watch one of your propaganda videos in the hope that there might be some scientific facts. Sadly I didn't get past the opening credit, for when I saw the name Peter Sinclair, one of the most debunked propagandists, I decided not to go any further. Sorry, but I prefer real facts from real scientists without ideological and political agendas.

    • 4 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • JanforGore:

      "They have no credibility." Hey, that's what I've been saying about you for a while now, only difference is I managed to prove it over and over again!
      Any chance of you answering some of the questions I've been asking for months? No, because you can't - the answers aren't in Skepticalscience or Romm's blog!!! :)

    • 4 months ago
  • csmonut
  • csmonut
    • +4
      csmonut  
    • IceKat:

      And I say to you also, "It is a proven fact that a person will deny what is obvious so they do not have to feel responsible for curing it, or guilt when they do nothing."

      Are you in fact one of the "Do Nothing" people? Do you recycle? Do you try to limit how much water you use? What do you do for your fellow man?

    • 4 months ago
  • DemGloriousBums
  • csmonut
  • coolplanet
  • csmonut
  • JanforGore
  • coolplanet
    • +4
      coolplanet  
    • JanforGore:

      I'm afraid we've passed the tipping point of no return.
      We could have prevented it, or at least slowed it down, 20 years ago and maybe even 10 years ago. But from what we are witnessing in the Arctic and Antarctic in the past few years it seems we have done too little too late.

    • 4 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • IceKat
  • DemGloriousBums
  • IceKat
    • -2
      IceKat  
    • DemGloriousBums:

      Absolutely, loads of charts and graphs, real-world evidence, data by the bucket-load (see previous comments)... but people here don't like that sort of thing. If it isn't endorsed by Joe Romm or on the Skepticalscience website they tend to get a little lost.

      How about you, anything scientific and factual to offer, or are you happy to just scribe meaningless sentences to me?

    • 4 months ago
  • DemGloriousBums
  • coolplanet
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