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Poll: Palin more popular than Obama or McCain
A week ago, most Americans had never heard of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Now, following a Vice Presidential acceptance speech viewed live by more than 40 million people, Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of American voters. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% hold an unfavorable view of the self-described hockey mom...
...Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin's favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year...
The reast is at the link... A week ago, most Americans had never heard of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Now, following a Vice Presidential acceptance speech viewed... more -
Poll: 51 percent say reporters are trying to hurt Palin
Over half of U.S. voters (51%) think reporters are trying to hurt Sarah Palin with their news coverage, and 24% say those stories make them more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in November.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) also believe the GOP vice presidential nominee has better experience to be president of the United States than Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.
But 49% give...
(Rest at link) Over half of U.S. voters (51%) think reporters are trying to hurt Sarah Palin with their news coverage, and 24% say those stories make... more -
Obama is an unknown quantity to swing voters
Barry Kay: Polls and the presidential elections. Part 5
Dr Barry Kay teaches a seminar on voting behavior, as well as courses on US Government and Public Policy in the Political Science Dept., at Wilfrid Laurier University. His research tends to be in the area of elections and public opinion. He is a past member of the Canadian National Election Study team, and recent publications pertain to electoral systems, public opinion polling, and the impact of single-issue interest groups. He has developed a model for projecting parliamentary seat distributions from popular vote or opinion polls, that is posted on the LISPOP page of the Laurier Web site. He is also a political analyst with Global Television, for their national election coverage.
See Part 1 at: http://current.com/items/89243737_polls_the_media_and_w...
See Part 2 at: http://current.com/items/89243770_polls_and_racism_in_a...
See Part 3 at: http://current.com/items/89243785_polls_the_media_and_p...
See Part 4 at: http://current.com/items/89259539_the_two_term_shuffle_... Barry Kay: Polls and the presidential elections. Part 5 ... more -
The two-term shuffle and who wins in '08
Barry Kay: Polls and the presidential elections. Part 4
Dr Barry Kay teaches a seminar on voting behavior, as well as courses on US Government and Public Policy in the Political Science Dept., at Wilfrid Laurier University. His research tends to be in the area of elections and public opinion. He is a past member of the Canadian National Election Study team, and recent publications pertain to electoral systems, public opinion polling, and the impact of single-issue interest groups. He has developed a model for projecting parliamentary seat distributions from popular vote or opinion polls, that is posted on the LISPOP page of the Laurier Web site. He is also a political analyst with Global Television, for their national election coverage.
See Part 1 at: http://current.com/items/89243737_polls_the_media_and_w...
See Part 2 at: http://current.com/items/89243770_polls_and_racism_in_a...
See Part 3 at: http://current.com/items/89243785_polls_the_media_and_p... Barry Kay: Polls and the presidential elections. Part 4 ... more -
Survey: Most Americans may back strike on Iran
Sixty-three percent of Americans say that if diplomacy fails to solve the Iranian nuclear crisis, they would approve of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites, a new poll has found.
The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and commissioned by The Israel Project, also finds that 87% of US voters feel that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a threat to the US.
Meanwhile, 80% of Americans said it was likely Iran would use nuclear weapons if it acquired them.
The threat of Iran is apparently felt across the political spectrum, with 85% of Democrats and 97% of Republicans believing the Islamic Republic represents a serious threat to the US.
However, 62% of those polled also felt that it was still possible to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The approval rate for American military action against Iran was lower than that of an Israeli operation, with 55% supporting targeted strikes by the US and its allies.
Negative feelings towards Iran are also held by a significant amount of the populations of Germany and the UK, the poll finds, with 64% and 39% viewing Iran unfavorably in the two countries, respectively.
"Americans, the British and the Germans worry about the direct threat to Israel from Iran and fear Iran's potential to share nuclear technology with terrorist groups," said Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. "All countries want diplomacy over military action to address this threat. The Germans oppose military action for historical and cultural reasons and the British do not want another Iraq. Yet the Americans are more open to military action, especially if a diplomatic solution fails to become a reality."
The national survey of 800 US likely voters was conducted by telephone July 23-27, 2008. The national omnibus surveys of 1,001 German adults and 229 opinion elites and 995 UK adults and 158 opinion elites were conducted July 18-22, 2008. The margin of error for the US poll is +/- 3.5%; the margin of error for the UK and German polls is +/- 3%. Sixty-three percent of Americans say that if diplomacy fails to solve the Iranian nuclear crisis, they would approve of an Israeli str... more -
Polls, the media and profit
Barry Kay: Polling is a business; the interest of pollsters is not to educate the public. Part 3
Dr Barry Kay teaches a seminar on voting behaviour, as well as courses on U.S. Government and Public Policy in the Political Science Dept., at Wilfrid Laurier University. His research tends to be in the area of elections and public opinion. He is a past member of the Canadian National Election Study team, and recent publications pertain to electoral systems, public opinion polling, and the impact of single-issue interest groups. He has developed a model for projecting parliamentary seat distributions from popular vote or opinion polls, that is posted on the LISPOP page of the Laurier website. He is also a political analyst with Global Television, for their national election coverage.
See Part 1 at: http://current.com/items/89243737_polls_the_media_and_w...
See Part 2 at: http://current.com/items/89243770_polls_and_racism_in_a...
See Part 4 at: http://current.com/items/89259539_the_two_term_shuffle_...
See Part 5 at: http://current.com/items/89259550_obama_is_an_unknown_q... Barry Kay: Polling is a business; the interest of pollsters is not to educate the public. Part 3 ... more -
Polls, the media and who will win in 2008
Barry Kay on the accuracy of polling and the presidential elections. Part 1
Dr Barry Kay teaches a seminar on voting behaviour, as well as courses on U.S. Government and Public Policy in the Political Science Dept., at Wilfrid Laurier University. His research tends to be in the area of elections and public opinion. He is a past member of the Canadian National Election Study team, and recent publications pertain to electoral systems, public opinion polling, and the impact of single-issue interest groups. He has developed a model for projecting parliamentary seat distributions from popular vote or opinion polls, that is posted on the LISPOP page of the Laurier website. He is also a political analyst with Global Television, for their national election coverage.
See Part 2 at: http://current.com/items/89243770_polls_and_racism_in_a...
See Part 3 at: http://current.com/items/89243785_polls_the_media_and_p...
See Part 4 at: http://current.com/items/89259539_the_two_term_shuffle_...
See Part 5 at: http://current.com/items/89259550_obama_is_an_unknown_q... Barry Kay on the accuracy of polling and the presidential elections. Part 1 ... more -
Poll Zeroes In On Weak Spots For McCain, Obama
An NPR poll of likely voters in 19 battleground states finds about half consider Illinois Sen. Barack Obama too risky. Those polled rank Arizona Sen. John McCain slightly behind Obama in terms of independence.
The poll results reveal voter doubts about both candidates' presidential qualities that may explain why neither seems to be able to break through a kind of ceiling this summer. In the national head-to-head matchups, Obama can't seem to break 50 percent, and McCain is stuck somewhere in the low to mid-40s.
The poll, conducted Aug. 12-14 by a bipartisan team of pollsters, surveyed voters in 19 states where the polling shows the race is very close or where the candidates have decided to make major investments of time and money, says Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg. An NPR poll of likely voters in 19 battleground states finds about half consider Illinois Sen. Barack Obama too risky. Those polled ra... more -
Poll shows McCain in 5-point lead over Obama
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.
The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.
"There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."
McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.
That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.
McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon.
Obama had opposed new offshore drilling, but said recently he would support a limited expansion as part of a comprehensive energy program.
That was one of several recent policy shifts for Obama, as he positions himself for the general election battle. But Zogby said the changes could be taking a toll on Obama's support, particularly among Democrats and self-described liberals.
"That hairline difference between nuance and what appears to be flip-flopping is hurting him with liberal voters," Zogby said.
Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives. By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent ... more -
Obama failing to deliver big poll lead
Two new anti-Obama books were among the bestsellers on Amazon.com's top 20 list last week. Although on the surface, everything seems to be going his way - Bush's unpopularity, the perceived failings of the Iraq war, a shattered economy and a candidate who inspires thousands - Obama's poll lead has stubbornly remained minimal. Television adverts from the Republican camp, portraying Obama as a messianic 'celebrity-driven egoist and an elitist out of touch with the American public' have also been perceived as damaging. The inevitable media backlash is also thought to have contributed to results of a tracking poll by RealClearPolitics published yesterday, which shows Obama on 46.9% compared with John McCain's 43.3%.The Democratic party is said to be on edge as Barack Obama's high-profile presence is failing to deliver the goods: polls for the Democrat presidential nominee are not showing significant leads for the election, which will take place on November 4th. Two new anti-Obama books were among the bestsellers on Amazon.com's top 20 list last week. Although on the surface, everything s... more
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"Obama wIns by 50+"?
Analyst Nate Silver who correctly predicted the White Sox World Series victory and their final season record - exactly turns his high powered algorithm on the Presidential election. His conglomeration of polls, trends and current events picks Sen. Barack Obama has the next president of the United States. Analyst Nate Silver who correctly predicted the White Sox World Series victory and their final season record - exactly turns his high ... more
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Obama leads McCain nationally in AP-Ipsos poll
A new poll finds Barack Obama is leading John McCain nationally by 6 percentage points thanks to big leads he is enjoying among women, minorities and younger voters.
The Associated Press-Ipsos poll shows that Obama is leading his Republican rival 47 percent to 41 percent. McCain has a 10-point lead among whites and is tied with the Democrat among men, but Obama is leading by 13 points among women and has huge leads with minorities and the young.
The poll was released Tuesday following a week in which the two camps accused each other of bringing race into a campaign in which Obama is seeking to become the country's first African-American president. A new poll finds Barack Obama is leading John McCain nationally by 6 percentage points thanks to big leads he is enjoying among women,... more -
The Miseducation of Survey's
News stories based on surveys, polls, studies and statistics are everywhere. Wouldn't it be good to have the mental agility to separate the wheat from the chaff? In the first of a weekly series, author Michael Blastland gives some hints at getting to grips with surveys.
Lesson one: Surveys.
The story: "Motorists turn to public transport as fuel price bites" - Daily Record
"MORE than three in five drivers are turning to public transport due to high fuel prices, a survey has revealed. The survey by transport firm National Express found 61 per cent of car users are definitely or probably considering using public transport due to the rise in prices at the pumps."
The flaw: Suckered by a press release. This story gives the impression that motorists are leaving their cars at home, en masse, for - guess what? - services run by the company that did the survey. In fact, the surveyed motorists are not necessarily doing anything. They are "definitely or probably" thinking about doing something - which they might eventually do once, or often, or never.
The Lesson: Two points. The survey has apparently bundled together the more and the less inclined, the definites and the probables, so that we have no idea if only 1% of the 61% are definites, or if most are. And it gives no indication of how big a change in behaviour they are considering - every trip… or just one.
The second point is to wonder what it means to say you are "probably" thinking about something. Are they thinking that they will probably do it, but haven't made up their minds? Maybe it means they are not sure what they are thinking, but if they had to guess what they are thinking then it would "probably" be something about petrol. Maybe it doesn't mean anything.
And are they actually doing it, as the headline suggests? No idea. News stories based on surveys, polls, studies and statistics are everywhere. Wouldn't it be good to have the mental agility to se... more -
Campaign Update 7/29/08*
Barack Obama bounces, John McCain attacks, and they both dance around a 16-month withdrawal. (This is the one that should've gone up yesterday. Apologies for the technical difficulties. The McCain elephant was grumpy.) Barack Obama bounces, John McCain attacks, and they both dance around a 16-month withdrawal. (This is the one that should've gone... more
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Whites May Exaggerate Black-Latino Tensions
The issue has obvious importance this election year, with Barack Obama soon to become the nation's first black on the ballot as a major-party candidate for president. Obama had difficulty carrying the Hispanic vote in the Democratic primaries earlier this year -- something that led to considerable media speculation about black-Hispanic animosity as the cause -- but Gallup polling has shown him solidly beating Republican John McCain among Hispanics throughout the campaign.
While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.
Hispanics preferred Clinton over Obama for the Democratic nomination, but they were not so opposed to Obama (or the idea of electing a black president) that they were willing to vote for McCain in the general election. The issue has obvious importance this election year, with Barack Obama soon to become the nation's first black on the ballot as a... more -
A blow-out in November?
Pollster.com has at the top of its front page a chart suggesting that the presidential election is all but over.
The public opinion experts who run the site say states with 284 electoral college votes - 14 more than the 270 needed to win - lean to or firmly support Barack Obama; states with 147 lean toward or are in John McCain's camp; and 10 states with 107 electoral votes are tossups.
In other words, the site suggests that Obama does not need to win a single tossup state -- Colorado, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina or Indiana -- to take the oath of office on January 20, 2009.
[V]irtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - points to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry....
-Are people still feeling burned by the last two elections and just afraid to realize the likelihood of a complete blow-out? Pollster.com has at the top of its front page a chart suggesting that the presidential election is all but over. ... more -
Obama poll results withheld by ABC News/Washington Post
In disclosing the results of their poll, conducted July 10-13, ABC News and The Washington Post issued staggered releases, withholding from their first release on July 14 poll results favorable to Sen. Barack Obama, including the finding that 50 percent of registered voters would vote for Obama "[i]f the 2008 presidential election were being held today" versus 42 percent who favored Sen. John McCain.
A partial release of the results, "embargoed for release after 6:30 p.m. Monday, July 14, 2008," was titled "McCain Stays Competitive on Iraq; It's About More than Withdrawal" and disclosed the results of only 10 questions relating to foreign policy.
Among the results, the release noted: 72 percent of respondents think McCain would be "a good commander-in-chief," compared with 48 percent for Obama; "50 percent of Americans prefer Obama's plan to withdraw most U.S. forces within 16 months of taking office," compared with 49 percent who side with McCain's position; 47 percent of respondents said they trust McCain more on Iraq, while 45 percent prefer Obama; and 51 percent of Americans "now say the U.S. campaign against the Taliban and al Qaeda there [in Afghanistan] has been unsuccessful." Following the July 14 release, ABCNews.com posted an analysis of only the foreign policy poll results under the headline "McCain Tops Obama in Commander-in-Chief Test; Stays Competitive on Iraq."
Similarly, Time magazine senior political analyst Mark Halperin linked to the ABCNews.com analysis using the headline: "Poll: McCain Wins More Confidence as Commander in Chief." In a July 15 article headlined "Poll Finds Voters Split on Candidates' Iraq-Pullout Positions," the Post reported only the poll results disclosed in the first release. The article did not mention Obama's 8-point lead over McCain among registered voters on who they would vote for "[i]f the 2008 presidential election were being held today."
On July 15, the day after the initial release, ABC News and the Post issued a second release disclosing the results of 18 questions "embargoed for release after 5 p.m. Tuesday, July 15, 2008." Included in the release was the result that overall, Obama leads McCain by 8 percentage points among registered voters. Additionally, the release stated: "Obama continues to hold most of the advantages in the presidential race, in enthusiasm, levels of partisanship, personal qualities and trust on top domestic issues, notably No. 1, the economy; and he's improved in the past month among swing voter groups." The release noted that Obama leads McCain by 19 percentage points on the question of which candidate respondents "trust more to handle the economy." In disclosing the results of their poll, conducted July 10-13, ABC News and The Washington Post issued staggered releases, withholding... more -
Gay Rights: Overview
Gay Issues have been popular on Current lately-my Homosexuality is Natural and JanaPokana's McCain does not support Gay Adoption submissions are getting a lot of feedback. So I thought I'd post this general overview on Gay Rights and why it's important that we fight for equality FOR EVERYONE in this country!!!
Excerpt:
"Surveys indicate Americans have mixed feelings about how far the government should go in codifying rights for gays and lesbians. Many Americans still view homosexuality as objectionable -- even a sin -- and many see gay rights as an assault on the traditional family and an effort to win government approval for sexual behavior that they view as deviant.
Gay rights remains an emotionally charged issue, and it’s clear the issue will continue to have ramifications not just for public policy but for American society as well." Gay Issues have been popular on Current lately-my Homosexuality is Natural and JanaPokana's McCain does not support Gay Adoption ... more -
Worst. President. EVER.
"The perception that the economy is failing may have finally done what seven years of lies and incompetence have failed to do — bring George Bush’s approval rating down to a closer reflection of reality:
George W. Bush’s overall job approval rating has dropped to a new low in American Research Group polling as 78 percent of Americans say that the national economy is getting worse according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.
Among all Americans, 19 percent approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 77 percent disapprove. When it comes to Bush’s handling of the economy, 14 percent approve and 79 percent disapprove.
Bad news for Bush but good news, finally, for the United States of America. It means that fewer than 20 percent of our fellow citizens are truly and irrevocably dimwitted and/or delusional.
But how does a 19 percent approval rating compare with other presidents? Here’s an overview from the recent past:
* Clinton low: 36 percent, May 1993 (early missteps like Zoe Baird)
* George H.W. Bush low: 29 percent, August 1992 (recession)
* Reagan low: 35 percent, January 1983 (recession)
* Carter low: 28 percent, July 1979 (high gas prices)
* Ford low: 37 percent, January 1975 (economy, Nixon pardon)
* Nixon low: 23 percent, January 1974 (Watergate)
* Johnson low: 35 percent, August 1968 (Vietnam)
* Lowest ever? That would be Harry Truman during the Korean War, in February 1952, at 22 percent.
We’ll have to wait and see if other polls show a similar trend, but for now it appears we have a winner, or rather, a loser.
George W. Bush, officially the Worst President Ever."
Even without the polls and approval ratings, I think it's EASY to say that GWBJr is THE WORST PRESIDENT in American History- We're waging a seemingly un-winnable war, our economy is in the trash, our environment is in danger, our dollar is low, our morale is waning, and the only thing keeping our heads up is that change MIGHT come soon! "The perception that the economy is failing may have finally done what seven years of lies and incompetence have failed to do — b... more -
Americans would rather be dead than disabled: poll
More than half of Americans would rather die than live with a severe disability, according to a survey.
In the online poll commissioned by Disaboom, a Web site and social network for people affected by disabilities, 52 percent of the 1,000 "nationally represented" adults chose death over losing the ability to live an independent life.
Disaboom, which launched the survey to better understand people's perceptions of disabilities, said more than 54 million Americans -- 1 in 6 people -- live with some form of debilitating condition.
"We want to show everyone that it's not the end, it's a new beginning," Glen House, co-founder of Disaboom and a quadriplegic for 18 years, said in an interview More than half of Americans would rather die than live with a severe disability, according to a survey. ... more
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