Betting // Current

BetOnMarkets bags two Financial Times and Investors Chronicle Investment 2008 awards!

It is clearly award season for BetOnMarkets.com with the addition of two Financial Times and Investors Chronicle Investment 08... more

cordieliea
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1 day ago

Market drama continues with Eurozone admitting recession

World stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday. The FTSE finished the week down around 4%, but it was UK plc that took a battering. The Pound fell to record lows against the European single currency, even breaking through the synthetic Euro/ Deutsche Mark lows from 1996.The week’s action was all the more damning considering the Eurozone’s admission that it too is in a recession. The Euro managed to end the slightly down against the dollar, but the pound plunged through the 1.5000 level for the first time since 2002. However there is still some way to go before the low of 1.3685 from 2001 is breached.

Financials were amongst the worst performing companies as Libor broke its 23 day decline. 3 month Libor increased to 2.15% and overnight Libor also pushed higher. The main catalyst was Paulson's announcements of changes to the Troubled Asset Relief Program. As this originally was seen as getting to the heart of the matter in terms of offloading toxic assets, investors are confused as to what this means for future prospects for financial firms in the US. In the US, the insurance giant AIG had its earnings estimates cut, as did Wells Fargo. Much worse are the rumours that Fannie May may have to tap into US government cash to avoid liquidation. Previously unaffected stocks such as HSBC were also down hard after poor results, and there was speculation that it too may need to follow Santander's lead in raising money through a rights issue. Until very recently HSBC and Santander were seen as being at arm’s length to the current crisis due to their relatively low exposure to the US housing market. However, with news of the UK property crash worsening and Asian markets faltering, HSBC is coming under increasing pressure.

More than anything market participants hate confusion or indecision, with the common reaction being "if in doubt, get out". This is reflected in the performance of financial shares across the globe. Even when the wider market attempted a rally, financials were weighing on sentiment, like a ship trying to sail with its anchor still deployed...................

For complete article, please visit http://www.regentmarkets.com/subpress_143.phpWorld stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday. The FTSE... more

cordieliea
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14 days ago

Odds of god's existence dropped to 4-1

Since opening its book just two months ago, punters hoping to have their faith rewarded have placed £5,000 with Paddy Power.

It began taking bets on the question that has plagued thinkers for centuries in September, to coincide with the switching on of the Large Hadron Collider that physicists hope may lead to the discovery of an elusive sub-atomic object called the "God particle".

Initially the odds that proof would be found of God's existence were 20-1, and they lengthened to 33-1 when the multi-billion pound atom smasher was shut down temporarily because of a magnetic failure.

But interest in the wager has increased greatly following the recent launch of a campaign to have atheist adverts placed on London buses declaring that "there's probably no God".

As a result of a flurry of small bets Paddy Power, which also runs books on who will be the next Pope and the head of the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales, has cut the odds on proof being found of God's existence to just 4-1.

The bookmaker stands to lose more than £50,000 if proof emerges to justify religious belief.

A spokesman for Paddy Power said that confirmation of God's existence would have to be verified by scientists and given by an independent authority before any payouts were made, however.

He added: "The atheists' planned advertising campaign seems to have renewed the debate in pubs and around office water-coolers as to whether there is a God and we've seen some of that being transferred into bets.

"However we advise anyone still not sure of God's existence to maybe hedge their bets for now, just in case."

Paddy Power's book on the theological topic was only opened this year, but the notion that it is a good idea to gamble on God's existence was first put forward in the 17th Century.

The French philosopher Blaise Pascal argued that although God's existence cannot be proven through reason, it makes sense to have religious faith since a person has everything to gain – an "infinitely happy life" – and nothing to lose by doing so.Since opening its book just two months ago, punters hoping to have their faith rewarded have placed £5,000 with Paddy Power.... more

breakthepower
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18 days ago

BetOnMarkets Awarded "Best Fixed-Odds Financial Trading Provider" Again

BetOnMarkets.com is pleased to announce being voted the 'Best Fixed-Odds Financial Trading Provider' once again at the... more

cordieliea
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18 days ago

To Treat The Threat of Economic Turmoil

Last week the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.5% rate cut. The move was largely pre meditated as a shock tactic to boost the ailing UK economy ahead of the all important Christmas period. Spreading the cut over a number of months would have had much less of an impact as it can take many months for the benefits of a rate cut to filter down to consumers. This is especially the case now with banks being slow to pass on cuts to customers. The MPC have sent out a message that they are prepared to treat the threat posed by the global slowdown very seriously. Unfortunately this message is a double edged sword, the euphoria that immediately met the rate cut was short lived and the FTSE soon rolled over and headed back towards the lows of the day.

There is also the possibility that today's rate cut might make it less likely that the MPC will cut again in the near future. Experts had been calling for cuts of this magnitude over a number of months, but the MPC may have bundled all their planned rate cuts in one dramatic roll of the dice. It may be some time before they cut again, preferring to let the dust settle on the biggest single cut in a generation.

Friday's US payroll figures were ugly by any measure, with the reported loss of 240,000 jobs slightly worse than expected. The worse data point to come out was actually the downwards revision to Septembers payroll figures, which pushed September payrolls down from -159,000 to -284,000. This means that so far in 2008, over 1 million jobs have been lost, most of these have been in the financial sector but the slump is prevalent in virtually every US sector.

On the face of it, it was perhaps surprising to see equity markets rebound so strongly on Friday, especially in the face of accelerating unemployment in the world's biggest economy. However, the reality is that financial markets are forward looking, which means that most of the time the bad news is already taken into account when it comes. Friday’s payroll figures could have been even worse than they were and judging by the rebound we're seeing, a significant part of the falls on Wednesday and Thursday may have been traders rushing in to sell ahead of Friday’s numbers. The net result is that the preceding two day sell off appears to have overshot slightly.

On the credit markets, libor and credit default swaps continue to improve for the worlds largest financial firms. The cost of insuring against companies defaulting on their debt is still very high by historical standards, but they have still come down a long way in the last few weeks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs still remain a concern while the UK's HSBC currently has the lowest CDS of the remaining major independent banks and brokers. In short, things have most certainly improved since the dark days of October, but there is a long way to go before we can say safely say that this credit crisis is over.... full article on http://www.regentmarkets.com/subpress_142.php

"A bull trade predicting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher than 9500 in 6 months time could return 102% at BetOnMarkets."Last week the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.5% rate cut. The move was largely pre meditated as a shock... more

cordieliea
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19 days ago

Gloomy weather overshadows world economy

Last week global equities finally managed to finish the week with significant gains, but October was still a very poor month overall. Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture highlighted just how volatile the last month has been. October was the worst month for the S&P 500 since the 1987 stock market crash, not only that, it was also the most volatile in the market’s 80 year history. There was also volatility on the currency markets as the Dollar managed to reverse most of the week’s early losses against the Pound and Euro. This volatility is partly a function of the unwinding of the global carry trade, and a rapid depreciation in most other western currencies. Many have attributed the recent rise of the Dollar to confidence in the strength of the US economy. This may not be the case, recent currency movements may be primarily a rebalancing act, as currency traders adjust their positions to factor in European and UK rates plummeting to nearer 2% over the next 6 months. America and Japan already have the lowest rates in the western world, but other western nations are set to follow with further deep cuts. Last week’s volatility was a function of continuing speculation of how quickly and how far the MPC and ECB will go in following the FOMC’s and BOJ's lead.

Last week’s rally is all the more impressive as it came in the face of more gloomy economic news. At times, this wave of poor economic data has kept a lid on any sustained buying. US house prices are down 16.6% year on year, having slumped over 30% since their peak in 2004. In the face of a continual erosion of the value of their homes, and the ever present warnings about the biggest slow-down since the great depression, it is little wonder that US consumer confidence figures came out at record levels. Today’s reading of 38.0 is the lowest in the indicator’s history going back to 1967. Interestingly consumer confidence if often a timely contrarian indicator in the medium term and if last week’s rally is anything to go by, it may be again.

Markets were still extremely jittery as evidenced by Tuesday’s wild ride on Volkswagen, which temporarily became the world’s largest company by market capitalization. It overtook ExxonMobil for a short while when it rose above 1,000 Euros in the morning. Just two days previously, it was trading at 200 Euros. Porsche increased their stake in the company to 75%, but the real reason for the huge spike was the squeeze on short traders. Volkswagen has the highest short interest of any stock on the German DAX index. Although shareholders in Volkswagen are rather happy right now, last week’s spike is more a symptom of the lack of liquidity in today’s market place. The German DAX index massively outperformed other markets, with the Volkswagen spike having a disproportionate effect on Germany’s benchmark index.

Analysts are expecting the bank of England to cut rates down to 4% next week, but industry leaders are calling for deeper cuts to help reduce the severity the coming recession. Last week the pound recovered some of the ground lost against the dollar, but this may only be a temporary respite, especially with the current level of debt taken on by the UK government. Last week the GBP/ USD exchange rate held above the 1.5000, but that level may not hold for long. A one touch trade with BetOnMarkets predicting that the GBP/ USD exchange rate will touch 1.5000 at any time during the next year could return 23%.Last week global equities finally managed to finish the week with significant gains, but October was still a very poor month... more

cordieliea
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25 days ago

Paddy Power offers odds of 4-1 that God exists

Paddy Power, a betting agency, is accepting bets as to whether or not God exists. The odds? 4-1, in favor of the big guy in the... more

nazbags
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12 responses

29 days ago

Man stands to win $250,000 on sucker bet that Tampa Bay Rays will win the World Series...

Face it, a tiny miniscule amount of people had the balls to put $100 on the Tampa Bay Rays to win the World Series, let alone the... more

kozeki
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1 month ago

Bull continues to run backwards, world economy in shambles! (BetOnMarkets)

Though the stock markets closest in chaos, though the economic is unprecedented and unprdictable, though it was anything but a... more

cordieliea
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1 month ago

Global Stock Market Sell Off and Extreme Volatility

It could be argued that even with the wild gyrations of the past few months, many were still in denial about the state of the financial markets. Last week, fear was rife as traders, investors, and the man on the street could no longer deny the magnitude of the global sell off. Some commentators are referring to it as the great crash of 2008. Certainly, there have been bigger one day falls in percentage terms, but the scale and unyielding nature of the October's sell off of is unique. You only had to take your eyes off a market like the Dow Jones for a second, and it will have moved 100 points in either direction. This level of volatility is almost unheard of. For days markets have continued to show signs of complete surrender, days that may have become capitulation low points in the past, yet the sell off still continued. People looking for the bounce that often follows such waterfall sell offs, have so far unfortunately been too early and quite wrong.

The VIX options volatility index, often referred to as the 'fear gauge', has spiked to levels even higher than those registered during the height of the dotcom bubble collapse. This is a broad decline with no one sector out on its own in leading declines. Financials are down of course, but so too is the energy sector, as oil continues to break down. Last year around the quiet period and intermediate high of August, the FTSE had a daily range of around 60 points. Last week it was moving that much every 15 minutes. These are extraordinary times and many technical indicators are flashing at levels never seen before. At best, central governments are hoping that the coordinated rate bomb and localized interventions have stopped Armageddon, there is now no hope of the UK, US, Irish and Spanish economies avoiding recession.

Next week's planned economic announcements will continue to play second fiddle to the shocks and surprises that await us all. US financials will be grateful for Monday's Columbus Day bank holiday, though the stock market is still open. Aside from this, there are important announcements from the UK to start the week with PPI input on Monday and CPI on Tuesday. Wednesday brings a raft of US data with US PPI and retail sales. Bernanke is also due to speak on in the late afternoon.

Although the sub prime mess originated in the US, this has always been a global credit crunch. European banks were some of the biggest buyers of sub prime securities, so when the crisis developed, any one of the world's major banks could have been holding toxic assets. This in turn led us to the historical coordinated action by the world's central banks today. Each government has attempted to deal with the crisis with specific interventions in their area but all eyes are on this weekend's G7 conference for further coordinated international activity.

It could be argued that Britain and the US have been able to take more significant moves because they have their own central bank and perhaps crucially a central treasury, something the Eurozone lacks. With problems in Ireland, Spain, Greece and Italy increasing, the pace of a recession across the Eurozone could run at different speeds, as did the preceding period of growth. The differing needs of each individual state could put further pressure on the Euro against the Dollar. The Dollar has recovered 16% from the lows back in March.

Betonmarkets now offer long term trades lasting a year and this could be ideal for currency moves. A one touch trade on the EUR/ USD to touch the 2005 lows of 1.16 in the next 12 months could return 117%.
It could be argued that even with the wild gyrations of the past few months, many were still in denial about the state of the... more