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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right
The web page 538.com gives up to date polls and predictions. Looks like Barack is pulling away. Keep up the good work people
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Karl Rove projects 273 electoral votes for Obama
With 30 days until Nov. 4, Karl Rove projects that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would get at least 273 electoral votes – three more than are needed to win – if the presidential election were held today.
But Rove warns that this race is “susceptible to rapid changes,” so no definite prediction is possible.
The remarkable forecast from the architect of the last two nationwide political victories underscores the straits that have rapidly enveloped Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as the banking and credit crisis spread.
Rove writes on Rove.com: “39 new state polls released in the first three days of October have given Barack Obama his first lead over the magic number of 270 since mid-July. Minnesota (10 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV) both moved from toss-up to Obama, giving him 273 electoral votes to McCain’s 163, with 102 votes remaining as a toss-up.
“If the election were held today, Obama would win every state John Kerry won in 2004, while adding New Mexico (5 EV), Iowa (7 EV), and Colorado (9 EV) to his coalition. Remember, though, that these state polls are a lagging indicator and most do not include any surveying done after the vice-presidential debate on Thursday night.”
Rove cautioned on “Fox News Sunday”: “Remember, the campaign ebbs and flows. What we're seeing here is a result of the focus of the American people, voters, on the economic problems that have dominated the news the last several weeks. What's happened then is a shift to Obama.
“Just remember, 17 days ago in the electoral college, McCain led 227 to 216. Fifteen days ago, on the eve of the news on the bailout, he led 216-215.This race is susceptible to rapid changes and we're likely to see, in the remaining four weeks, more changes.”
On “Meet the Press” on Sunday, NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd said Obama is still one state away from solidifying the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House. Colorado, Virginia or Florida would put it away for Obama if the election were held today, Todd said.
“Even if it’s Nevada [making the total] 269, it sends it to the House, where Democrats have an advantage,” Todd said. “As it stands today, John McCain would have to run the table. Now, good news for him: They’re all states that voted Republican four years ago. With 30 days until Nov. 4, Karl Rove projects that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would get at least 273 electoral votes – three more than... more -
RealClearPolitics - electoral map
Click the link to see the latest polls, and also the total of Electoral College Votes, state by state.
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Current Electoral College Vote Status
Amongst Evangelical Christians, at this point in the election, Bush had a 78% approval rating while McCain now has 67% approval rating. Palin appears to have had little or no affect on this voter group.
The last two weeks have shown a marked change in the electoral college standings of the two candidates.
This week will tell us if the trend lines are continuing to show a widening gap between the two candidates.
I believe this is the first election where the internet is having a major impact on voters who no longer trust mainstream media to give them accurate and complete information. The internet is forcing the major media outlets to be more even handed. Amongst Evangelical Christians, at this point in the election, Bush had a 78% approval rating while McCain now has 67% approval rating... more -
Barack Obama's team believes he can win by a landslide
Insiders say that Mr Obama's apparent calm through an unusually turbulent election season is because he believes that his strength among first time voters in several key states has been underestimated, both by the media and by the Republican Party.
"Public polling companies and the media have underestimated the scale of new Democratic voters registration in these states," the campaign official told a friend. "We're much stronger on the ground in Virginia and North Carolina than people realise. If we get out the vote this may not be close at all."
Statewide surveys put the likely Electoral College result at a slender Obama win, 273-265. But his campaign staff believe they have a good chance of securing between 330 and 340 votes, and could win up to 364 votes, a landslide on the scale of Bill Clinton's wins. Insiders say that Mr Obama's apparent calm through an unusually turbulent election season is because he believes that his strengt... more -
Electoral College Projections Done Right: Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College P...
Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection Charts and graphs are updated. Full polling report coming within the hour.
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ABC News: Presidential Race Tightens, Moves to Familiar Battlegrounds
"This is how close the contest for the White House really is: It comes down to an electoral college slug fest over 14 states, and in some of those key states the race is too close to call.
The presidential race has tightened and has come down to a fight for familiar battleground and swing states.
(ABC News Photo Illustration)New polls indicated that Republican John McCain has lost the bounce he got from the GOP's convention and his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. A CBS News-New York Times national survey showed Democrat Barack Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent, and a Quinnipiac University poll gives Obama a similar edge 49-45 edge.
But the closeness of the race has apparently prompted Obama to abandon earlier plans to fight for votes in states that generally go Republican, and the 2008 presidential race has settled on familiar battleground and swing states.
ABC News has identified 14 states that could go for either Obama or McCain in November. Those states include Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Those14 states have a total of 175 electoral votes up for grabs, more than half of the 270 needed to claim victory. " "This is how close the contest for the White House really is: It comes down to an electoral college slug fest over 14 states, and... more -
For most people, college is a waste of time
Imagine that America had no system of post-secondary education, and you were a member of a task force assigned to create one from scratch. One of your colleagues submits this proposal:
First, we will set up a single goal to represent educational success, which will take four years to achieve no matter what is being taught. We will attach an economic reward to it that seldom has anything to do with what has been learned. We will urge large numbers of people who do not possess adequate ability to try to achieve the goal, wait until they have spent a lot of time and money, and then deny it to them. We will stigmatize everyone who doesn't meet the goal. We will call the goal a "BA."
You would conclude that your colleague was cruel, not to say insane. But that's the system we have in place.
Finding a better way should be easy. The BA acquired its current inflated status by accident. Advanced skills for people with brains really did get more valuable over the course of the 20th century, but the acquisition of those skills got conflated with the existing system of colleges, which had evolved the BA for completely different purposes...
The solution is not better degrees, but no degrees. Young people entering the job market should have a known, trusted measure of their qualifications they can carry into job interviews. That measure should express what they know, not where they learned it or how long it took them. They need a certification, not a degree.
The model is the CPA exam that qualifies certified public accountants. The same test is used nationwide. It is thorough -- four sections, timed, totaling 14 hours. A passing score indicates authentic competence (the pass rate is below 50%). Actual scores are reported in addition to pass/fail, so that employers can assess where the applicant falls in the distribution of accounting competence. You may have learned accounting at an anonymous online university, but your CPA score gives you a way to show employers you're a stronger applicant than someone from an Ivy League school.
The merits of a CPA-like certification exam apply to any college major for which the BA is now used as a job qualification. To name just some of them: criminal justice, social work, public administration and the many separate majors under the headings of business, computer science and education. Such majors accounted for almost two-thirds of the bachelor's degrees conferred in 2005. For that matter, certification tests can be used for purely academic disciplines. Why not present graduate schools with certifications in microbiology or economics -- and who cares if the applicants passed the exam after studying in the local public library?...
But that's irrelevant to the larger issue. Under a certification system, four years is not required, residence is not required, expensive tuitions are not required, and a degree is not required. Equal educational opportunity means, among other things, creating a society in which it's what you know that makes the difference. Substituting certifications for degrees would be a big step in that direction.
Here's the reality: Everyone in every occupation starts as an apprentice. Those who are good enough become journeymen. The best become master craftsmen. This is as true of business executives and history professors as of chefs and welders. Getting rid of the BA and replacing it with evidence of competence -- treating post-secondary education as apprenticeships for everyone -- is one way to help us to recognize that common bond.
*read the article to get more info that was shortened here on current. What are your thoughts?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121858688764535107.html... Imagine that America had no system of post-secondary education, and you were a member of a task force assigned to create one from scra... more -
A blow-out in November?
Pollster.com has at the top of its front page a chart suggesting that the presidential election is all but over.
The public opinion experts who run the site say states with 284 electoral college votes - 14 more than the 270 needed to win - lean to or firmly support Barack Obama; states with 147 lean toward or are in John McCain's camp; and 10 states with 107 electoral votes are tossups.
In other words, the site suggests that Obama does not need to win a single tossup state -- Colorado, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina or Indiana -- to take the oath of office on January 20, 2009.
[V]irtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - points to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry....
-Are people still feeling burned by the last two elections and just afraid to realize the likelihood of a complete blow-out? Pollster.com has at the top of its front page a chart suggesting that the presidential election is all but over. ... more -
Election reform for $6!?? Yes.
Congress would only have to spend $6 per citizen per year to publicly fund each and every election for the House, the Senate and the White House. When you consider that "pork barrel" projects cost every one of us more than $200 last year alone, it’s no contest.
Think of it. With public funding, wealthy special interests and their hired lobbyists would no longer have a commanding influence over our politics and government. Instead of begging for campaign donations, candidates would spend their time communicating with voters. Once elected, our leaders would be free to focus on our nation's challenges rather than having to worry about financing their next campaign. And there's no doubt that more of our most able leaders would run for federal office when the ability to finance a campaign isn't such a daunting obstacle.
Take action!
Prompt candidates and representatives to support sound election reform!
http://www.just6dollars.org/candidates Congress would only have to spend $6 per citizen per year to publicly fund each and every election for the House, the Senate and the W... more -
Obama + Dean + $100 Million in June = Massive GOP Losses
Now that Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic Nomination, his campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will begin working closely together. In fact, the Obama Campaign is already taking on some of the DNC’s usual functions.
What is exciting about this new alliance is that Howard Dean, as chair of the DNC, and Barack Obama are now on the same team. The two most groundbreaking internet fund-raisers the political world has ever seen are going to be working side-by-side with their 50-state strategy in place, which Dean employed to win back Congress for the Democrats back in 2006.
The influx of cash to Obama’s campaign is going to be incredible. Some are estimating that Obama may even bring in $100 million this month. To put that in perspective, George W. Bush’s record-breaking fund-raising effort in the 2000 election cycle brought in $303 million, and that was over a full, two-year period.
Barack Obama has already almost reached that number at this point in his campaign and we’re just now beginning the General Election. He sits at $265 million raised, nearly three times the total John McCain has raised thus far.
What will this gap in cash flow mean for the two candidates?
Get the answer at http://stonecipher.typepad.com or click the link above. Now that Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic Nomination, his campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will begin work... more -
Illinois Pushes for Change in the Electoral College
Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich signed the National Popular Vote Bill earlier today, making Illinois the third state, along with Maryland and New Jersey, to approve a new system for electing U.S. presidents. When enough states pass the bill, a compact will be formed that will assign electoral college representatives ("electors") based on the winner of the national popular vote. The proposal would in effect establish a one-person-one-vote election system without the need of a constitutional amendment. Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich signed the National Popular Vote Bill earlier today, making Illinois the third state, along with Maryland and ... more
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New Jersey Moves to Side Step the Electoral College
New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed the National Popular Vote Bill, joining Maryland as the second state to move towards as new system for electing U.S. presidents. When enough states pass the bill, a compact will be formed that will assign electoral college representatives ("electors") based on the winner of the national popular vote. The proposal would in effect establish a one-person-one-vote election system without the need of a constitutional amendment. New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed the National Popular Vote Bill, joining Maryland as the second state to move towards as new syst... more
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NJ Joins The Fight To Change Electoral College
New Jersey on Sunday became the second state to enter a compact that would eliminate the Electoral College's power to choose a president if enough states endorse the idea.
Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed legislation that approves delivering the state's 15 electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. The Assembly approved the bill last month and the Senate followed suit earlier this month.
Maryland - with 10 electoral votes - had been the only state to pass the compact into law. New Jersey on Sunday became the second state to enter a compact that would eliminate the Electoral College's power to choose a pr... more
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Electoral College
